Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Three Market Trends to Watch This Month

 If history is any sort of guide... May is going to be an interesting month.
 
Stocks are behaving the same as they did in early 2012, with a relentless four-month push higher. The similarity continued yesterday as stocks fell hard. But anyone anxious to buy into yesterday's dip might want to re-think that idea... Last year, the S&P 500 fell 134 points during the month of May. And I suspect we'll see a similar pattern this time around.
 
But stocks aren't the only investments that are following the same patterns as last year...
 
 The action in interest rates is similar, too. Take a look at this chart of the 30-year Treasury rate...
 
30-Year Treasury Bond Yield
 
You can see how interest rates bottomed in the later part of 2011 and 2012 (the red circles). Rates then moved steadily higher until peaking in mid-March of 2012 and 2013 (the blue circles). Last month, rates chopped back and forth in a slightly declining channel, just as they did in April 2012. What comes next could be bad news for bond-market bears.
 
 Volatility is also showing a similar pattern to last year. Take a look at the Volatility Index (the "VIX")...
 
VIX Could Spike Up to 60% Higher
 
The VIX declined for a few months before hitting a bottom in March 2012. It then pushed higher, fell back, and formed a higher low at the end of April. The chart shows the exact same pattern this year. In May 2012, the VIX spiked 60% higher. A similar move this time around will push the Volatility Index above 22.
 
 Finally, let's take a look at gasoline. You'd think gas would be correlated with the rest of the financial markets. But you'd be wrong...
 
Gas Prices Could Hit Bottom a Month Earlier Than Last Year
 
Gasoline bottomed at about the same time in 2012 as it did in 2011. It then rocketed higher. The peak this year came about a month earlier than it did last year. So maybe gasoline prices will hit bottom about a month earlier this year as well. We'll have to wait and see.
 
– Jeff Clark


Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Why eBay Is Poised to Keep Popping

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, online marketplace giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at eBay and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

eBay facts

Headquarters (founded)

San Jose, Calif. (1995)

Market Cap

$72.1 billion

Industry

Internet software and services

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$14.5 billion

Management

CEO John Donahoe (since 2008)

CFO Robert Swan (since 2006)

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

15.1%

Cash/Debt

$9.4 billion / $4.5 billion

Competitors

Amazon.com

Google

Overstock.com

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 87% of the 4,435 members who have rated eBay believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last week, one of those Fools, mmaclaurin, succinctly summed up the eBay bull case for our commnity: "While its primary competitor Amazon wanders from shiny object to shiny object, eBay doggedly pursues commerce around the globe and in all forms, including retail through [GSI Commerce]. New global trading service is a game-changer and will support strong growth through 2013"

If you want market-topping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite its four-star rating, eBay may not be your top choice.

To learn about two other retailers with especially good prospects, take a look at The Motley Fool's special free report: "The Death of Wal-Mart: The Real Cash Kings Changing the Face of Retail." In it, you'll see how these two cash kings are able to consistently outperform and how they're planning to ride the waves of retail's changing tide. You can access it by clicking here.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Why iRobot Is Poised to Bounce Back

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, robot specialist iRobot (NASDAQ: IRBT  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at iRobot and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

iRobot facts

 

 

Headquarters (founded)

Bedford, Mass. (1990)

Market Cap

$976.2 million

Industry

Household appliances

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$463.55 million

Management

Co-Founder/Chairman/CEO Colin Angle

CFO Alison Dean

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

13.2%

Cash/Debt

$152.9 million/$0

Competitors

Electrolux AB

Lockheed Martin 

Samsung Electronics

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 91% of the 1,318 members who have rated iRobot believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.   

Just last week, one of those Fools, DLester78, succinctly summed up the iRobot bull case for our community:

Better company than movie or book. Anytime you can take a menial task that truly is a waste of time and automate it. To cap off why ... Sweeping and cleaning sucks. It does nothing for the economy and there are many daily tasks that if automated would allow someone to focus on being productive. I think more people will adopt smart technologies and [iRobot] has a brand name.  

With the American markets reaching new highs, investors and pundits alike are skeptical about future growth. They shouldn't be. Many global regions are still stuck in neutral, and their resurgence could result in windfall profits for select companies. A recent Motley Fool report, "3 Strong Buys for a Global Economic Recovery," outlines three companies that could take off when the global economy gains steam. Click here to read the full report!

Philips Wins $88.5 Million Pentagon Medical Imaging Contract

The Department of Defense awarded Philips (NYSE: PHG  ) Healthcare Informatics an $88.5 million-ceiling value, firm-fixed-price contract for the supply of a digital imaging network-picture archive system. In so doing, it made progress on a project that's been in the works for 16 years.

In 1997, the DoD first issued requirements for what was then designated the "Digital Imaging Network-Picture Archiving and Communications System." At the time, DIN-PACS was described as "an open systems network of digital devices designed for the effective acquisition, transmission, display and management of diagnostic imaging studies." In essence, it would digitize X-Ray and MRI scans and put them in a form that could be easily transmitted from doctor-to-doctor electronically. DIN-PACS would be made interoperable with not just civilian hospitals in the U.S., but designed based on two truly international standards, Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) and Health Level 7 (HL7).

Philips' work on the project is expected to be initially completed by June 2, 2015, however, this contract contains the possibility of a two-year option period, and an additional one-year option period, being tacked on after that date.

link

Sunday, July 28, 2013

LeBron James Throws Instagram a Bone

Thursday was a big day for Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) and LeBron James. Earlier in the day, the social-media network operator announced that it was giving Instagram users the ability to upload video clips as long as 15 seconds to its fast-growing Instagram photo-sharing website. Later that night, James helped power the Miami Heat to its second consecutive NBA championship.

The fun didn't end there for either party. A few hours after clinching the NBA Finals victory -- repeating as MVP -- James uploaded a short video to Instagram's new platform. The playful yet expletive-saddled rant has naturally gone viral. As for Saturday morning, more than 373,000 Instagram users have shared the clip and another 42,000 people have commented on it.

Facebook couldn't have timed this any better. The stock failed to move higher on Thursday's announcement. It was a down day for the market, but investors failed to see this as anything else than an attempt by Facebook to drum up a response to Twitter's popular Vine platform that allows for six-second videos.

Now with a single viral upload on Friday, a lot of people now know that Instagram isn't just a place for snapshots.

Celebrities have a funny way of lifting a platform's visibility. Twitter was doing fine as a place for tech-forward folks to share short messages, but it really took off once entertainers took to pecking out 140-character missives. The same scenario played out in China with SINA's (NASDAQ: SINA  ) Weibo. The moment top athletes, rockers, and movie stars took to Weibo, it became the undisputed micro-blog of choice for the world's most populous nation.

At the peak of Linsanity, Jeremy Lin's Weibo account amassed millions of followers. Even some Western celebrities who don't have Twitter accounts have popular Weibo feeds. MediaBistro.com points out that Robert Downey Jr. is on Weibo but not on Twitter.

In short, don't underestimate Instagram's chances here. The site that had just 20 million active users when Facebook snapped it up early last year is now up to 130 million shutterbugs. A whopping 16 billion photos have been uploaded to the site, and now it's time to see whether short video clips will take Instagram to an even higher level or whether this will alienate its growing base.

It would be a bad idea to bet against Facebook. On Friday, UBS upgraded the stock to "buy" -- bumping its price target to $30 -- partly on the prospects of selling ads against the short videos. UBS expects Facebook to start slapping video ads on the clips during the latter half of this year, and if users accept the monetization, it could easily create millions in incremental annual revenue for Facebook.

Facebook shareholders who continue to see their stock trade well below last year's $38 IPO would love that. Why wait? Now the bulls can always take to Instagram with their own brief rants against the haters.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged among the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Dark Pools Face New U.S. Disclosure Requirements From Finra

Securities regulators approved a plan to require U.S. off-exchange markets such as dark pools to boost disclosure about the transactions they handle.

The board of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the private-sector overseer of U.S. brokerages, will propose rules to the government that would compel alternative trading systems to disclose the amount of volume they handle for each stock, according to a statement yesterday. Trading systems will also be assigned unique identification codes so it will be easier to track where each transaction takes place.

"This will allow Finra to monitor the trading that occurs in each ATS much more particularly and be able to identify if any abusive trading appears to occur," Finra Chief Executive Officer Richard G. Ketchum said in a video posted with the announcement. This is a "real positive step from a market integrity standpoint," he said.

The action, which Ketchum previewed in May, comes after U.S. exchanges have seen their share of American equity trading dwindle, prompting them to request regulators to consider curbing transactions off public markets. About a third of U.S. volume this year has taken place off exchanges, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Estimates of trading in dark pools are published monthly by research firm Tabb Group LLC and institutional broker Rosenblatt Securities Inc. In April, Credit Suisse Group AG, operator of the largest U.S. dark pool, said it would stop providing data to Tabb and Rosenblatt.

Ketchum said in the video yesterday that Finra may eventually start using data sent from dark pools and other off-exchange markets to publicly report how much trading takes place on each.

Big Profits Can't Push Stocks Higher Today

Earnings season is in high gear, but generally solid earnings reports haven't given investors enough reason to bid stocks up today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) has fallen 0.3% late in trading, and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) is down 0.48%.

The biggest loser on the Dow today is Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) , which has dropped 2.1% after reporting a 4% decline in earnings to $2.68 billion, or $0.59 per share. Adjusted earnings of $0.63 per share met estimates, but investors were surprised to see that revenue fell 2.6%, and there's growing concern that the soft-drink business is in a long-term decline. 

Dow component Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) reported results that were well ahead of estimates, but the stock is flat as I write. The company said adjusted earnings rose 14% to $1.48, which was $0.09 ahead of estimates, while revenue rose 8.5% to $17.88 billion. Medical companies have struggled against the cost pressures on the industry, so it was especially encouraging that Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceutical business saw 12% growth to lead the company. The medical industry is volatile right now, but Johnson & Johnson is big and diverse enough to navigate these waters, just as it did during the second quarter.  

Finally, more financial earnings are pouring in, and it was a blockbuster quarter for the industry. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) said net income doubled to $1.93 billion on the back of strong trading and investment-banking activities. But shares have fallen 1.7% today because investors are concerned that huge trading gains won't come easily as the Federal Reserve slows down its bond-buying program. Revenue from fixed income, currency, and commodity trading fell from $3.22 billion in the first quarter to $2.82 billion last quarter, and we could see that slowdown continue as rates rise. All in all, it was still a great quarter, investors aren't gobbling it up today.  

The challenge for Goldman Sachs is that trading involves risks many investors are terrified to take after the crash. But the banking sector has one notable standout in a sea of mismanaged and dangerous peers and it rises above as "The Only Big Bank Built to Last." You can uncover the top pick that Warren Buffett loves in The Motley Fool's new report. It's free, so click here to access it now.

Friday, July 26, 2013

3 Dividend Stocks on Sale

The stock market recently logged its biggest one-day dip in over a year. Worries over the Federal Reserve's policies had investors on edge, with many choosing to sell rather than stick through the volatility. Dividend stocks have been hit particularly hard thanks to fears that they'll lose their draw once interest rates begin creeping up.

However, there's a much better investment strategy than trying to guess which asset class Wall Street will favor next: Stick with your plan and try to use swings in market sentiment to your advantage.

With that in mind, here are three promising dividend stocks that have gotten a lot cheaper lately.

Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB  )
This convenience-food company has been on a buying binge. Campbell spent $1.55 billion last year on Bolthouse Farms, and recently closed a few smaller deals, including one for Plum Organics, the No. 2 brand of organic baby food in the U.S. That aggressive acquisition strategy has given Campbell's sales a shot in the arm. Last quarter, for example, revenue jumped by 15% almost entirely thanks to new sales from the Bolthouse Farms brand.

CPB Revenue Quarterly YoY Growth Chart

CPB Revenue Quarterly YoY Growth data by YCharts.

And yet despite hitting its highest sales growth in over five years, Campbell's stock is trading more than 10% below its 52-week high. It is also yielding a hefty 2.7%.

Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL  )
Colgate's shares are trading well below the $62 high they hit just last month. The consumer goods company is heavily levered to international sales, with more than 80% of its business coming from outside the U.S. and more than half coming from emerging markets.

Yes, that leaves Colgate exposed to issues like the big currency devaluation in Venezuela. But it also means strong potential growth from a burgeoning middle class around the world. For example, the company saw its gross margin climb to an industry-leading 58.3% as each of its sales regions -- except for Latin America -- kicked in higher profits. Colgate is currently yielding about 2.3%.

Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA  )
Comcast may be losing cable subscribers, but it is making up for those defections with solid growth in other areas of the business. Sure, the company shed 60,000 residential video customers last quarter. But that's actually much better than Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC  ) managed. Time Warner saw a steeper dip in its video subscribers of 4.5%, or over 550,000 customers.

However, the fact that Comcast tacked on 433,000 high-speed Internet users helped it notch a 6.4% jump in total revenue. And the company's business services segment kept up its growth streak, closing its 12th consecutive quarter of growth in excess of 20%. Best of all, Comcast's shares trade for just 16 times trailing earnings. And thanks to the recent trading slump, the company's yield has crept up to just above 2%.

Foolish bottom line
While each of these stocks could get cheaper from here, there's just no telling how the market will react to any particular piece of economic news. That's why it makes no sense to try to outguess market moves.

Instead, continue hunting for great businesses that produce strong shareholder returns, no matter what the broader market is up to.

More dividend stocks to consider
If you're on the lookout for high-yielding stocks, The Motley Fool has compiled a special free report outlining our nine top dependable dividend-paying stocks. It's called "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." You can access your copy today at no cost! Just click here.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why Sequenom Shares Got Squashed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of diagnostic testing specialist Sequenom (NASDAQ: SQNM  ) plummeted 30% today after its quarterly results disappointed Wall Street. 

So what: Sequenom's second-quarter revenue spiked 91%, but a whopping loss of $31 million -- driven largely by cash collection problems caused by Medicare changes -- is forcing analysts to dramatically lower their short-term growth estimates. And while the volume of its MaterniT21 tests weren't affected by the seemingly temporary reimbursement issues, several signs of increasing competitive pressure have Wall Street worried about Sequenom's longer-term prospects, as well.

Now what: The annualized run rate for the MaterniT21 PLUS test at the end of the quarter surpassed 150,000 samples. "[W]e expect improvements in collections in the second half," said Chairman and CEO Dr. Harry Hixson, Jr. "We are taking actions to reduce costs and improve our overall financial performance, including curtailment of services for which there is no current reimbursement available." So while the decision to scale back services will weigh on short-term volumes and market share, long-term investors might want to capitalize on today's big drop.   

Obamacare will undoubtedly have far-reaching effects. The Motley Fool's new free report, "Everything You Need to Know About Obamacare," lets you know how your health insurance, your taxes, and your portfolio could be affected. Click here to read more. 

   

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Re-Evaluating the Value in Panera

This morning, Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA  ) had one of those stock price charts where it appears as though the apocalypse came along, and the market just disappeared. The weak earnings report that the company released yesterday sent the shares down almost 7% overnight, after a 2% drop late in trading on Tuesday. Panera now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7, pulling it closer to its competitors.

Actually, that's not entirely true. Panera's drop pulled it closer to companies such as Darden (NYSE: DRI  ) -- operator of Red Lobster and Olive Garden -- and Jack in the Box (NASDAQ: JACK  ) , which also runs Qdoba. It fell away from what seems like its closest competitor, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX  ) . But that's not necessarily a bad thing for investors.

The valuation game
Using P/E ratios to measure the relative cost of stocks is a tricky system, but within a sector, it does give investors a good idea of what kind of expectation is built into a stock price. In general, the more growth that we expect from a company, the higher the P/E ratio is going to be. Investors are willing to pay more now for bigger gains in the future.

With a P/E of 26.7, Panera is still above the restaurant average P/E of 21.7. That means people are expecting Panera to grow faster than the average company within the sector. Starbucks is further ahead, at 34.4, while Darden sits below the average at 15.6, and Jack in the Box is right in line with Panera, at 26.3. So what does that really tell us?

What it doesn't tell us is something intrinsic about the companies. The P/E ratio is not a measure of how good a company is, only what the market thinks about a company. The drop in Panera's price indicates that the market is worried about the future prospects for rapid growth -- with some good reason.

A shortfall in the second quarter
Panera's earnings release contained a few bits of bad news. First, its comparable-store sales grew slower in the second quarter than expected. While it had forecast a year-over-year increase of between 4% and 5% at company-owned locations, it managed growth of only 3.8%. That led to a slowdown in revenue growth, which led to a slowdown in profit growth.

All the pulling back means that the company had to reforecast its future earnings -- which had the biggest impact on the stock price -- pushing annual earnings per share growth down to between 15% and 16%. Originally, the company had forecast earnings growth of between 17% and 19%, per share. 

The competition and the bottom line
Getting back to the comparison to peers, Darden is looking for a drop in EPS of between 3% and 5% for its next fiscal year, because of a set of increasing costs. Moving up the chain, Jack in the Box is expecting to grow EPS by 29% and 30% on an operational basis -- it only forecasts based on continuing operational income growth.

Starbucks leads the pack in cost on a P/E basis, but the company is in the middle in terms of growth. The company is looking for between 18% and 22% annual EPS growth this year. The reason it's still much more expensive than Panera is threefold.

First, the market is having a knee-jerk reaction to the Panera earnings statement, probably driving the stock lower than it "deserves." Second, Panera is in the middle of a string of decent, but not great, news. The stock has been puttering along over the last year, so there's no momentum to push the valuation higher. Third, Starbucks is probably seen as a safer bet, since the company has been making lots of good decisions recently. Its expansion into more food items is being touted as a real winner, and its recent acquisitions are seen as good investments in the future of the business.

Overall, I agree with the market. Panera is a good business, and it certainly has more going for it than Darden, which has been sluggish recently. But Panera is still figuring things out. While I'm not looking to expand my restaurant holdings, if I were, today's drop might offer a good place to jump in. I still believe in the company, and the price change today is largely justified. If I could only pick one, though, I'd shell out and get Starbucks -- the future over there looks very bright. Check back on Friday morning to see if my trust is misplaced.

While Starbucks is my favorite in the business, it's not for everyone. Another restaurant made the cut for the Motley Fool's free report focusing on international expansion. We'll show you how profiting from our increasingly global economy can be as easy as investing in your own backyard. The Fool's free report "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World" shows you how. Click here to get your free copy.

Why Brown-Forman's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF.B  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Brown-Forman generated $442.0 million cash while it booked net income of $591.0 million. That means it turned 15.5% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds pretty impressive. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Brown-Forman look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 7.3% of operating cash flow, Brown-Forman's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 5.2% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 17.7% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Is Brown-Forman the best beverage bet for you? Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks," including one above-average beverage seller. Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Brown-Forman to My Watchlist.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Time Warner Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

Media and entertainment company Time Warner (NYSE: TWX  ) has appointed a new chief financial officer, Howard Averill, effective Jan.1, the company announced this week. Time Warner's current CFO, John Martin, will then take on the title of chief executive officer for Turner Broadcasting System.

Averill currently serves as Time Inc.'s chief financial officer, where his duties include overseeing accounting, taxes, and budgeting activities. He is also responsible for Time's marketing business, and has previously served as  executive vice president and CFO for NBC Universal Television.

Jeff Bewkes, Time Warner's chairman and CEO, was quoted in the company press release as saying that Averill has proved to be a solid, dependable leader whose "financial acumen, sound judgment, and broad understanding of our business will be an asset to Time Warner's management team and our company."

Time Warner also announced Monday that Joseph A. Ripp has been named chief executive officer of Time Inc. Ripp, a former top Time Inc. and Time Warner executive, is currently the CEO of OneSource Information Services Inc. He begins his new role in September.

In March, Time Warner announced plans for the legal and structural separation of Time Inc. from Time Warner through a spin-off. Following the separation, Time Inc. will be an independent publicly traded company.

Time Warner has seen its stock price rise 29% since the beginning of 2013. On Monday, the company's price per share moved from $61.91 to $62.22.

link

Monday, July 22, 2013

CapitalSource to Merge With PacWest Bancorp

The Godiva REITs: The Naked Truth

To be honest, I love chocolate as much as I love REITs. I was shopping with my wife and kids this weekend and as I was getting ready to swipe my credit card, I glimpsed over at the Godiva chocolate display. Immediately I began to crave the taste for mouth-watering solid milk chocolate, so I reached over and grabbed a bar.

It was a weak moment but I'll concede that chocolate is one of the few temptations that I can't resist, especially Godiva. The gold-wrapped bar weighing 1.5 ounces is one of the most gratifying experiences on the planet and there is simply no other ingredient that can seduce my palate. Biting into a premium brand like Godiva is a gratifying experience and the most rewarding part of the love affair is to relish the delicious premium brand known for its Belgium heritage dating back to 1926.

Of course Godiva was a beauty before being a chocolate. Most of you know that Lady Godiva lived in the 11th Century and she was famous for riding naked through the streets of Coventry in England. One version of the Godiva legend includes Peeping Tom, who was struck blind when he violated the mystery of Godiva's beauty and was punished for viewing the "naked truth".

The legend of Godiva has evolved into a classic figure identified as a stunningly beautiful woman and the candy has become a brand recognized for superior quality. So what does this have to do with REITs?

The Naked Truth About REITs

According to NAREIT, "Transparency is an important element in the REIT story and can be thought of in two ways. (1) REITs provide tax transparency, meaning that the REIT pays no corporate tax in exchange for paying out strong, consistent dividends. Rather, taxes are! paid only at the individual shareholder level. (2) In addition, REITs provide operating transparency, meaning that listed REITs are registered and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and adhere to high standards of corporate governance, financial reporting and information disclosure. They are also covered by a robust group of Wall Street and independent analysts."

The U.S. REIT industry's corporate governance has been recognized by RiskMetrics Group as among the best in the stock market. In recent years, RiskMetrics Group ranked the REIT industry in the top tier among all industries in the quality of its corporate governance. In an era when too many companies have been exposed for poor business practices, good governance wins investors' attention. (source: NAREIT)

REITs are Something Special

Warren Buffett has said:

Your premium brand had better be delivering something special, or it's not going to get the business.

It's no secret, I think REITs are something special and I get the same feeling when I bite into my favorite Godiva chocolate. It's not just the transparency that I'm attracted to but the dividends.

REITs and REIT investors thrive because the income producing business model serves as a disciplined income strategy whereby dividend policies (for REITs) are reliable and predictable. Remember that by law, REITs must pay out at least 90 percent of taxable income and, on average, REITs pay out around two-thirds of their total return in the form of dividends. The other one-third is capital appreciation. So clearly dividends are not paid out as a reward (like most companies) but instead they "anchor" the total return composition and that is why they are so enticing.

Accordingly, REITs provide investors with a powerfully unique income strategy in which the dividend-anchored total returns are also the essence of the repeatable value proposition. Unlike most other fixed-income alternatives, REITs perform a highly valuable task by ! turning t! he sources of (rental) income into powerfully consistent and reliable dividends.

Unlike Lady Godiva, REITs are not myths either. It's the attraction to repeatability - the strongest sources of differentiation - that makes REITs one of the most sustainable income alternatives on the planet.

Now that we've peeled off the REIT wrapper, let me list a few of my favorite "blue chip" REITs. Sink your teeth into these dividends and remember that by re-investing the dividends (or compounding) you are also getting a "free share" machine and that means that you can "super size" your portfolio for the long-haul and that, my friends, is how I sleep well at night!

(click to enlarge)

Source: SNL Financial and NAREIT

REITs mentioned: (VTR), (OHI), (O), (DLR), (HCP), (HTA), (KIM), (FRT), (SPG), and (SKT)

Note: This article is intended to provide information to interested parties. As I have no knowledge of individual investor circumstances, goals, and/or portfolio concentration or diversification, readers are expected to complete their own due diligence before purchasing any stocks mentioned or recommended.

Source: The Godiva REITs: The Naked Truth

Disclosure: I am long O. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Listen to This Billionaire on These 2 Stocks

You can make a lot of money by following the advice of a billionaire. That's why I think you should follow what Leon Cooperman, the billionaire and founder of hedge fund Omega Advisors, has to say about two energy stocks. I've been following both companies for quite some time, and I agree: Both LINN Energy (NASDAQ: LINE  ) and SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD  ) have the potential to make investors a lot of money.

Source: LINN Energy.

Cooperman has been fairly vocal in his support of LINN Energy as it has battled negativity this year. Recently he wrote a strong letter to the editor of Barron's refuting several negative stories it had published this year. He even goes so far as to say that the reporter responsible for the stories is "in the vise of a small group of unprincipled short sellers." He ends his letter defending LINN by saying that his firm is "convinced of the professionalism of the company's management." Further, "we are optimistic about the company's future growth and financial performance; and we believe strongly that the distortions of the three Barron's articles will not, in the end, carry the day."

I'm convinced that he's right to be bullish on LINN. I've been an investor in the company practically since it went public in 2006. The recent negativity on the company will eventually blow over, as it always does after these "bear raids" end. The biggest form of uncertainty is that these negative attacks have pulled in the SEC to investigate. That's putting the complex merger involving LINN, its affiliate LinnCo (NASDAQ: LNCO  ) and Berry Petroleum (NYSE: BRY  ) on shaky ground.

If the merger falls through, LINN could struggle to grow, because the company's main source of growth is acquisitions. One of the purposes of taking LinnCo public was to help it in its quest to acquire additional energy reserves, particularity companies such as Berry. That being said, if the SEC finds nothing wrong with LINN's accounting, and the merger with Berry goes through, LINN's units could skyrocket. According to Cooperman, and a number of Wall Street firms including Stifel, the company is worth about $40 per share, which would make it worth substantially more than where it's currently trading.

Source: SandRidge Energy.

The second energy stock Cooperman is bullish on is SandRidge Energy. At a recent conference, the billionaire called out the oil and gas producer as one of his top 10 stock ideas. He thinks the company could be a "potential double" and that it has the best risk reward of the 10 stocks he named.

Here again, Cooperman is noting the real tangible value some investors are missing. In this case, it's the company's Mississippian Lime position, which is a high-growth oil asset. This year alone, SandRidge expects to grow its oil production from the play by 64%. That's really important, because 80% of the Mississippian's cash flow comes from oil.

The company has come a long way over the past year in cleaning up its act. It sold assets to repair its balance sheet so that it now has enough capital to develop the Mississippian through 2015. In addition, the company recently fired embattled founder and CEO Tom Ward after a long proxy battle with shareholders. With this uncertainty lifted, investors can focus more on the company's operations. Led by the tremendous potential of the Mississippian, the company has a very compelling future, which is why I agree with Cooperman's belief that the stock has the potential to double from here.

Final Foolish thoughts
Maybe I'm suffering from a bout of confirmation bias, but I agree with Cooperman on both picks. LINN is a great income growth stock, while SandRidge is a turnaround stock that's just getting ready for that turn. That's why I think investors should listen to what Cooperman is saying and dig a little deeper into both stocks.

Another stock worth drilling deeper into is the stock that The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for this year. Find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

 

Friday, July 19, 2013

Friday's Top Upgrades (and Downgrades)

This series, brought to you by Yahoo! Finance, looks at which upgrades and downgrades make sense and which ones investors should act on. Today, our headlines include a pair of earnings-inspired downgrades for first Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD  )  and Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG  ) .

On the plus side, though, one analyst is naming Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) a winner. Let's start the week's final trading day off on a bright note and begin with that one:

Under Armour could sprint
As next week's earnings report approaches, analysts are getting in line to line up behind Under Armour. Canaccord Genuity led off earlier this week with a reiterated buy rating and a price target raised to $70, arguing that "new product introductions/extensions in both apparel and footwear... the relaunch of bags in accessories... the impact of accelerated shop-in-shop openings at [Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS  ) and] sq. ft. growth... and improved planning" will all help to grow revenues, improve gross margins, and deliver more profit to the bottom line.

Initiating at outperform yesterday, banker Wedbush added that "women's, youth, footwear and international continuing to represent UA's most significant wholesale opportunities," while also looking forward to "continued growth of direct-to-consumer operations." And this morning, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey leapt aboard the Under Armour train, initiating coverage with a buy rating and a $71 price target.

Are they right? I don't know. Personally, I'm still leery of the more-than-53-times-earnings valuation at Under Armour. But it's undeniable that, at least in one respect, Under Armour is improving. Free cash flow at the company, which has historically vacillated between weak and negative, is now firmly in the green and even outpacing reported net income. While I don't think it's strong enough to support UA's lofty $6.4 billion valuation yet, the trend's clearly moving in the right direction. UA could surprise.

Retreating from Advanced Micro
Less happy news greets Advanced Micro Devices shareholders today. Yesterday, AMD beat estimates soundly, but only by losing less money ($0.09 per share) than expected ($0.13 per share). It seems that's not going to be good enough for Wall Street, however, as we watch both Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley downgrade to various flavors of sell.

I can't say I blame them for that. Beat or no, it's undeniable that AMD is losing money these days. It may or may not turn profitable next year, but even if it does, consensus estimates have the stock trading for a forward P/E ratio of 65 times earnings, which is quite a lot for a company that's only expected to grow earnings at about 11.5% per year over the next five years.

Top all this off with the fact that AMD carries a $1 billion net-debt load and has racked up $818 million in negative free cash flows over the past year, and I just don't see a whole lot to like about this stock right now.

Intuitive Surgical in the ICU
Intuitive Surgical? My, that one has been a disappointment this month, hasn't it? First, the company issued an earnings warning a couple of weeks ago. Then it followed that up by missing analyst earnings estimates yesterday. One analyst has already thrown in the towel on this one, with JMP Securities downgrading to market underperform this morning.

And yet, all the negative news has had one positive result: It's made the shares look (almost) cheap enough to own. Intuitive now sports a P/E ratio of less than 21. That's not quite cheap enough to make the stock a bargain if it hits consensus estimates of 16% earnings growth over the next five years, of course. The stock's probably even less of a bargain if growth stalls out below that level -- as seems to be becoming more and more likely with each negative announcement. And, of course, free cash flow remains a mystery as Intuitive wasn't able to put together a cash flow statement in time for yesterday's earnings release.

All that being said, if you liked Intuitive Surgical a few months ago, when the shares were selling for north of $580 a share, you kind of have to like the stock today at its new and improved price of less than $370.

My advice: Let's keep a sharp eye out for that 10-Q filing. If the free cash flow number looks better than the earnings number, this low-hanging stock could be ripe for the picking.

 

Kinder Morgans Boost Their Dividends

The tightly-linked entities Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI  ) and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP  ) are joining forces to make their share and unit holders richer. Both have boosted their dividends, with Kinder Morgan declaring a $0.40 per share distribution, and Energy Partners announcing a per-unit payout of $1.32. Both will be paid to share/unit holders of record as of July 31; the payment date for Kinder Morgan is August 15, while Energy Partners investors will receive their money one day earlier.

Kinder Morgan's $0.40 per share payout is $0.02, or 5%, higher than its previous quarterly disbursement of $0.38. Energy Partners' $1.32 is also $0.02 higher than its preceding dividend ($1.30); in percentage terms, the increase is 2%.

The former's new payout annualizes to $1.60 per share. That yields 4% at the stock's most recent closing price of $39.58. For Energy Partners, those figures are $5.28, 6.1%, and $86.73, respectively.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

MetLife Moves Closer to the Danger Zone

Pity poor MetLife (NYSE: MET  ) . Never has a life insurer shed more in an attempt to wind up with less. In MetLife's case, its sale of its retail banking unit to GE Capital (NYSE: GE  ) was an exercise in frustration, as one regulatory hurdle rose up to replace those already vanquished. At the end of last year, the sale was finally given the green light, effectively pulling MetLife out from under the banking regulators' scrutiny.

The closing of that sale did not solve another pending problem, however. New procedures enacted by Dodd-Frank have empowered the Financial Stability Oversight Council to label any company as a "systemically important financial institution" if council members feel that the economy could be threatened by its failure. Earlier this week, the giant insurer announced that it had entered the last stage of the regulatory process that could give MetLife the SIFI designation that it feels it so richly does not deserve.

So far, not so good
Other companies -- like GE Capital, as well as MetLife peers AIG (NYSE: AIG  )  and Prudential (NYSE: PRU  )  -- have already earned that tag, which could push stricter new capital rules upon them. Though AIG and GE Capital are not challenging the classification, Prudential is appealing its recent designation.

MetLife's CEO Steven Kandarian has balked at this classification in the past and released a comment along with the company's announcement of the insurer's status. He noted that no other entity can be considered threatened by its ties to MetLife, and that unduly strict capital rules will extract costs from larger insurers only, thus impacting their ability to compete with their smaller, less regulated rivals.

So far, Kandarian's pleas have fallen on deaf ears, and things aren't looking great for MetLife. After all, the CEO had lumped fellows AIG and Prudential into an argument against MetLife's SIFI classification earlier this year at a summit in Washington, D.C., and look what happened to them. It also looks less likely that MetLife will escape the designation now, at the final stage of the regulatory process.

As Bloomberg notes, MetLife held over $840 billion in assets at the end of the first quarter, compared to Prudential's $724 billion. Unfortunately for Mr. Kandarian, it looks like he is going to have to get used to MetLife's new label very soon.

Investors love insurance stocks due to their great dividend potential. If you're an investor who prefers returns to rhetoric, you'll want to read The Motley Fool's new free report "5 Dividend Myths... Busted!" In it, you'll learn which stocks provide premium growth and whether bigger dividends are better. Click here to keep reading.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

The Surprising Stocks Behind the Dow's Gain Today

As often happens, occasions that Wall Street looks forward to with bated breath turn out to be non-events in terms of market reaction. Some investors believed that today's testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke might result in the same levels of volatility that we saw last month, when the Fed had its first serious discussion about easing off on the quantitative-easing accelerator pedal. But for the most part, Bernanke didn't say anything that his audience didn't already know, and the market traded in a relatively narrow range, with the Dow Jones Industrials (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) finishing up 19 points and narrowly missing a record high.

Still, the market's quiet day didn't stop a few stocks from picking up serious ground. DuPont (NYSE: DD  ) was the hot stock in the Dow, soaring more than 5% to levels not seen in more than a decade on reports from CNBC that Nelson Peltz and his Trian Fund Management investment firm had taken a large stake in the chemical giant. Neither Peltz nor Trian confirmed or denied the report, but the stock's price jump indicates how much shareholders are banking on the activist investor's reputation for squeezing more value from companies he targets.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) also made sizable gains, rising almost 3% as the bank's combination of solid net income and cost-cutting measures helped the bank beat its earnings estimates. Perhaps more importantly, Bernanke's comments seemed to stabilize the bond market, which has been extremely turbulent in recent months as fears of the Fed's QE exit pushed interest rates higher. With the 10-year Treasury bond trading below 2.5% today, the possibility of one last run at relatively low mortgage rates could create big demand for home loans as buyers rush to get what they might see as a last chance at cheap financing.

Finally, outside the Dow Industrials, airlines had a good day, with United Continental (NYSE: UAL  ) jumping 8% and Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL  ) posting a 3% gain. Despite recent trouble in making fare hikes stick, airlines have done a great job of boosting fee income and posting solid bottom-line earnings lately. Moreover, United Continental's announcement today that it will pioneer the commercial use of the Split Scimitar winglet design in a retrofit of its fleet of 737-800 aircraft. The move could help improve efficiency by 2%, which should help United's earnings rise even further.

No matter which industry you think will produce the top returns, the best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.

What to Watch: 3 Regional Banks Set to Report Earnings

In this segment of The Motley Fool's everything-financials show, Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson tell investors what they will be watching when PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC  ) , Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ: HBAN  ) , and KeyCorp  (NYSE: KEY  )  report earnings this week

David points to the importance of commercial lending, and Matt discusses the potential for lack of earnings-diversity to negatively impact performance.

More outlook on the banking sector from The Motley Fool
Many investors are terrified about investing in banking stocks after the crash, but the sector has one notable stand-out. In a sea of mismanaged and dangerous peers, it rises above as "The Only Big Bank Built to Last." You can uncover the top pick that Warren Buffett loves in The Motley Fool's new report. It's free, so click here to access it now.

To follow The Fool's coverage of financial stocks, click here!

You can follow David and Matt on Twitter.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Homebuilders Are Feeling Better, Which Is Great News

If there's one thing that could get the economy back up and humming, it's home construction. That's why today's news about rising confidence among homebuilders should be greeted enthusiastically.

The National Association of Home Builders reported this morning that its housing market index, which tracks confidence among homebuilders, rose by six points to 57 in July. It was the index's third consecutive monthly gain and the strongest since the beginning of 2006.

The association's chairman Rick Judson noted that, "Today's report is particularly encouraging in that it shows improvement in builder confidence across every region as well as solid gains in current sales conditions, traffic of prospective buyers and sales expectations for the next six months."

The rising confidence is consistent with at least two related trends. At the end of last week, both JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) announced that their purchase-money mortgage originations shot up by 44% and 46%, respectively, over the first quarter.

In addition, homebuilders themselves are starting to report dramatically improved quarterly results. Most recently, Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL  ) said that its unit deliveries in the second quarter were up by 33% while Lennar's (NYSE: LEN  ) were higher by 39%.

The significance of this industry for the overall economy cannot be overstated. It's estimated that two to three jobs are created with every home built. As a result, it's axiomatic that there's never been a strong economy without a strong housing market.

With the American markets reaching new highs, investors and pundits alike are skeptical about future growth. They shouldn't be. Many global regions are still stuck in neutral, and their resurgence could result in windfall profits for select companies. A recent Motley Fool report, "3 Strong Buys for a Global Economic Recovery," outlines three companies that could take off when the global economy gains steam. Click here to read the full report!

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Petrobras Share Gap to Narrow on Accounting, Santander Says

The gap between Petroleo Brasileiro SA's preferred shares and voting shares will probably narrow as the Brazilian oil producer changes the way it accounts for currency swings, Banco Santander SA said.

The state-controlled company's preferred stock may trade at a premium of as little as 95 centavos ($0.42), Santander's analysts Christian Audi and Vicente Falanga Neto wrote in a note to clients. The gap between the two classes of shares reached a 11-week high of 1.53 reais on June 14.

Petrobras, as the company is also known, began adopting accounting practices in May that allow exporters to reduce the impact currency fluctuations have on earnings, according to a July 10 regulatory filing. The change will boost 2013 earnings by 4.7 billion reais, Citigroup Inc. analysts Pedro Medeiros and Fernando Valle wrote in a note to clients.

The new accounting method benefits voting shares because dividends on that class of stock are linked to the company's net income, which will not be as affected by currency swings, according to Citigroup's analysts.

Voting shares have risen 7.8 percent to 14.87 reais in the past two days, narrowing the gap with preferred shares to 88 centavos as of 11:28 a.m. in Sao Paulo.

The real weakened 0.4 percent to 2.2640 today, pushing its decline this year to 9.4 percent. The currency's implied three-month volatility, a measure of price swings, increased to 14.2 percent, the highest among major dollar peers after the South African rand.

Taxable Income

A weaker real hurts Petrobras's profit as the value of its dollar-denominated debt increases, Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa said in an interview last year. The full effect of the changes won't be felt until the third quarter because it was implemented in May, according to the Citigroup analysts.

While reducing debt service costs, the new accounting policy also increases the taxable income of the world's biggest producer in deep waters, according to Citigroup.

"We estimate the change will lead to 1.8 billion reais in higher taxes paid in 2013," the Citigroup analysts wrote. "In the long term, the change makes it more difficult to forecast Petrobras's results."

3 Stocks Near 52-Week Lows Worth Buying

Just as we examine companies each week that may be rising past their fair value, we can also find companies potentially trading at bargain prices. While many investors would rather have nothing to do with companies tipping the scales at 52-week lows, I think it makes a lot of sense to determine whether the market has overreacted to the downside, just as we often do when the market reacts to the upside.

Here's a look at three fallen angels trading near their 52-week lows that could be worth buying.

Don't write off this sector just yet
Want to know a surefire way to scare an investment banker away with two simple words? Just say "mortgage REIT" and you'll likely see him or her scamper away.

The mREIT sector has been nothing short of slammed over the past quarter on speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin winding down its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, which have worked in mREIT's favor by keeping long-term lending rates at historically low levels. I, however, see things a bit differently and think plenty of opportunity still exists here, including with American Capital Mortgage Investment (NASDAQ: MTGE  ) .

There are two ways to play the mREIT sector. The first method is by purchasing agency-only mREITs like American Capital Agency. Agency-only mREITs purchase mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loan assets that are fully backed by the U.S. government in case of default. Often this means agency mREITs can utilize high leverage ratios but usually deliver lower net interest margins. American Capital Agency has used this leverage to its advantage and currently delivers a projected yield of 20%!

Then there's the second method, which is by purchasing hybrid companies that buy agency and non-agency MBS's. Non-agency loans aren't backed by the government, which means any defaults are taken as losses on the balance sheet. The trade-off is that non-agency loans yield much higher net interest margin rates.

For American Capital Mortgage, investors seem hell-bent to focus on its non-agency risk when just $727 million of its $11.8 billion investment portfolio is tied up in non-agency investments. Other metrics, including its leverage ratio of 4.9 and net interest margin of 1.90%, appear to be well in line with the sector average. Furthermore, American Capital Mortgage is trading at just 68% of its book value, implying that investors may be emotionally overreacting on this move lower.

Even if American Capital Mortgage had its payout halved, it would still net investors close to 10%. I think this is an mREIT you need to dig more deeply into.

Screening for great deals
If you're looking for a potentially undervalued medical device and diagnostics company, consider looking no further than Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX  ) .

With Hologic completing the sale of its Lifecodes business segment to Immucor in March and Europe consistently weighing down medical device and diagnostic sales lately, investors have multiple reasons to be skeptical of Hologic's impending growth slowdown. With a forecast sales growth rate of 26% in 2013, it's a bit disappointing to see sales growth slow to just 6% next year. But I see multiple growth drivers on the horizon.

Nothing in Hologic's pipeline of products offers more promise than its 2D + 3D mammography Affirm breast biopsy guidance system. One of the biggest challenges in diagnosing and treating breast cancer is getting an accurate and detailed view of the area of concern. Hologic's mammography products are making this process quicker, cheaper, and more reliable for patients. This should be an area of big growth given that breast cancer is the second-most diagnosed of all cancer types.

Another overlooked factor is that Hologic is a niche company in women's health. Because women statistically live longer than men, this means a company like Hologic will be able to sell its diagnostic and medical products to female patients for a longer period of time than, say, a medical device and diagnostic company focused solely on men.

At 11 times forward earnings and with a sea of potential growth in breast cancer screening, Hologic is a name I believe you should have a close eye on.

Living in a renter's paradise
The last quarter has been rough on housing and office space real estate investment trusts, with 30-year mortgage rates spiking from less than 3.5% to as high as 4.75% recently. Low lending rates were one of the keys fueling the housing rally higher, so higher lending rates stemming from the potential wind-down of QE3 could serve to stymie growth. Yet for residential-REITs like Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE: MAA  ) , the effect would actually be extremely positive.

Mid-America Apartment, which thankfully has a much shorter moniker in MAA, is already enjoying very high occupancy rates of 96.1% as of its most recent quarter. Where it's really benefiting is with regard to rental rates. Vacancies for apartments are already low, but with mortgage rates rising, the incentive to purchase a home is quickly dwindling away. Instead, prospective homebuyers may choose to rent and wait out the next drop in interest rates. This expected influx of renters into an already tight market only serves to boost MAA's pricing power. Not surprisingly, rental rates were up 4.7% in the past quarter. 

Another growth driver looks to be its pending $8.6 billion merger with Colonial Properties Trust (NYSE: CLP  ) . The combined entity would become the second-largest U.S. based residential REIT, with 85,000 apartment units. Opposition to the deal from some of Colonial's shareholders does exist, but comparatively speaking, MAA is in great shape either way. It already has a high occupancy rate, and the addition of Colonial's properties would only further serve to enhance its rental pricing power.

With a yield in excess of 4%, MAA could have years of good time ahead if lending rates continue to trickle higher.

Foolish roundup
Sometimes investors need to be reminded that macroeconomic events that can affect a large group of stocks don't necessarily hold true for every stock in a sector. QE3 may pose challenges to mREITs and residential-REITs, but there are certainly hidden gems mixed in with the possible losers. The same goes for Hologic with regard to its promise in women's diagnostics, even with Europe weighing on most of the health care sector.

I'm so confident that these three names will bounce off their lows that I'm going to make a CAPScall of outperform on each one.

Solid companies selling at depressed prices, such as those which I've attempted to highlight above, have consistently helped generations of the world's most successful investors preserve capital, minimize risk, and achieve long-term, market-trampling returns. For one such company, read our free report: "The One REMARKABLE Stock to Own Now." Just click here to get started.


Saturday, July 13, 2013

Northrop Grumman: 'Dirt cheap'

Mike CintoloAfter a decade of conflict, the U.S. is cutting back on defense spending and generally pulling back from overseas commitments, with the much-ballyhooed sequester likely to cut orders for big defense firms for years to come.

So why is giant Northrop Grumman (NOC) one of the strongest stocks in the market right now? For three main reasons.

First, the stock is dirt cheap, as investors had priced in their worst fears before the sequester took place—even today, after a decent upmove, shares trade at just 11 times earnings, and the firm pays a dividend of $2.44 annually (2.9% yield).


Second, management has proven deft at boosting profit margins, so earnings are expected to stay north of $7 per share going forward. (Earnings totaled just $3 per share back in 2003.)

Third and most important, management is using its gigantic cash flow to embark on an unbelievable share repurchase plan—it just added a whopping $4 billion to its share repurchase plan, and the top brass said it's aiming to buy back 25% of the outstanding shares by the end of 2015.

Imagine! That alone will keep earnings per share elevated, and could pave the way toward bigger dividends (less will need to be paid in total with fewer shares outstanding).

We don't think Northrop is going to double, but we think it has a shot to trend steadily higher in the months ahead.

Not surprisingly, NOC was a do-nothing stock for months and years, but shares tightened up in March, and broke out powerfully in late April. Then shares got an added kick on May 17, when management announced its aggressive share buyback plan.

Lastly, we like how the stock has etched slightly higher highs and higher lows since mid-May, even as the market has done the opposite. It's a bit extended to the upside, but any dip into the low $80s is buyable.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Has Verizon Fallen Short of Its Promise to Apple?

Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) quite the stickler when it comes to carrier partnerships. Not only do the service providers have to cede any semblance of control over the user experience and pay hefty subsidies, they frequently also have to commit to minimum purchase obligations that add up to tens of billions of dollars. As the top domestic carrier, you'd think Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) Wireless should have had no problem meeting these quotas. You might be wrong.

Sell more Big Red iPhones
Analyst Craig Moffett, who left Sanford Bernstein this year to go it alone, just so happened to be digging through 2011 SEC filings from Vodafone one day, which owns 45% of Verizon Wireless, and stumbled upon a footnote that said the carrier was on the hook for $45 billion in total purchase commitments. Most of this total is for the iPhone, Moffett believes.

Moffett estimates that Verizon Wireless might end up falling short on its obligations by $12 billion to $14 billion if the company doesn't sell $23.5 billion in iPhones this year. If Verizon doesn't hold up its end of the bargain, Apple might be able to extract some penalties from the carrier. Verizon probably won't just cut a check for the difference and call it a day, but will inevitably have to negotiate some type of settlement with Apple.

It's not likely that Apple will just forgive and forget and let bygones be bygones; these purchase commitments are there for a reason. With global smartphone demand slowing on the high end, letting Verizon skip by scot-free would set a bad precedent.

One's ahead, another's behind
Big Red's iPhone purchase commitments have never been publicized, like other carriers. For instance, when Sprint (NYSE: S  ) became an iPhone carrier it said it was on the hook for $15.5 billion in iPhones over the following four years. Based on quarter-specific average selling prices, the No. 3 carrier looks to be slightly ahead of schedule with its own obligations. My estimates show that Sprint has moved $6.3 billion worth of iPhones in the first six quarters.

Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP  ) has had trouble keeping up with its commitment, saying its current selling rate puts it $450 million short of its three-year deal with Apple. The company expected to only meet half of its first-year commitment through June 2013, which hadn't changed by the time of its most recent 10-Q. Leap is one of the only major domestic carriers that doesn't report iPhone activations, but clearly there's something to be desired with the figures.

The downside of free
Since Apple's iPhone purchase commitments appear to be based on dollar amounts instead of unit volumes, perhaps the surprisingly strong demand of the iPhone 4 hurt Verizon in this regard.

Half of Verizon's iPhone activations in both Q4 and Q1 were LTE-equipped iPhone 5 models, as there was a lot of pent-up iPhone demand at the $0-on-contract price point within Verizon's customer base. Apple's been struggling to keep up with demand, and the aging iPhone 4 was constrained in Q4. That model retails for $200 (or 30%) less than the newest iPhone 5. Each iPhone 4 unit satisfies a lot less dollar commitment.

Will Apple cut Verizon some slack?

Apple has a history of cranking out revolutionary products... and then creatively destroying them with something better. Read about the future of Apple in the free report, "Apple Will Destroy Its Greatest Product." Can Apple really disrupt its own iPhones and iPads? Find out by clicking here.

Foot Locker Gets German Approval for Acquisition

Specialty athletic retailer Foot Locker (NYSE: FL  ) announced yesterday that it has received approval from Germany's Federal Cartel Office to complete its previously announced $94 million acquisition of Runners Point from private equity firm Hannover Finanz, along with its CEO and CFO. The approval was the last hurdle in completing the transaction and now both companies anticipate the deal to close in early July.

Runners Point operates more than 200 stores under its eponymous banner as well as through Sidestep and an online storefront called Tredex. It recorded revenues of around $254 million in 2012.

When the deal was announced last month, Foot Locker Chairman and CEO Ken C. Hicks said: "This acquisition will enhance our position in Germany, the strongest economy in Europe, and also provide us with additional banners to further diversify and expand our European business. We also intend to leverage Tredex's strong digital capabilities to accelerate growth in our own developing European e-commerce business."

The Fool's Rich Smith suggested the specialty retailer was getting a good price for the German retailer, noting the purchase price represented about 0.4 times its sales whereas Foot Locker's own shares sold closer to 0.9 times sales. 

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Is Ford Taking a Huge Risk in This Battle for the Automotive Industry?

The auto industry has seen its share of battles over the years. From the simple domestic rivalry between Ford  (NYSE: F  )  and GM  (NYSE: GM  ) , to the industry's epic battle for survival during the credit crisis. Today, a new battle is brewing in the industry in light of our nation's drive to become more fuel efficient. This new battle pits aluminum against lighter weight steel.

Could the next Ford F-150 have an aluminum body? Photo Credit: Ford 

There are rumors the next Ford F-150 will have an aluminum body, which would shave off about 700 pounds, or about 15% of its total body weight. The weight loss would be critical for the truck, as well as the Ford brand, to meet the new fuel-efficiency standards. The move is really an effort by Ford to get ahead of the curve as the move would equate to a 25% increase in fuel economy. 

Fuel efficiency in the U.S. must reach 54.5 MPG by 2025. To reach this level, weight reduction will be critical, which is where aluminum could come into play. In fact, a recent study emerged that bodes well for aluminum producers like Alcoa  (NYSE: AA  ) , as it concluded that an all-aluminum body could reduce weight in some vehicles by 40%, which would enable MPG efficiency to increase by 14%. This type of initiative could see aluminum usage in autos double from 2008 to 2025. Alcoa sees big potential for its business as the company forecasts 10 times more North American Aluminum Body Sheet content per vehicle (in pounds) by 2025 from 2012 levels (from 14 to 136 pounds). 

Both aluminum and steel desperately need the automotive sector's business. Steel has been a longtime supplier to the industry but has given way to aluminum recently due to manufacturers' focus on weight reduction as MPG efficiency standards have increased. While aluminum makes up a small portion of a car's total weight when compared to steel, the figure has grown from nearly nothing in only a few short years.

Steel will always have a place because it's critical for truck frames due to the heavy payloads they support. While Ford did look into an aluminum frame, it decided against the idea because so much more aluminum would be needed that it was cost prohibitive and didn't provide much weight reduction. That's one reason why United States Steel  (NYSE: X  )  believes it will be a big winner due to its cost structure and ability to produce lighter, stronger steel products. The company is continuously researching and developing new grades and processes to better align with its customers' needs. That's why it believes it can fend off aluminum's assault. 

In fact, Ford's chief domestic rival, GM, is taking a much different approach in it has decided to stick with steel for the body of its trucks. Instead, GM is focusing on improving engines and transmissions to reduce fuel consumption. It's also producing two different trucks, one focused on power and towing performance and a second smaller truck which will offer about 20% better gas mileage. While both versions will use aluminum, neither will do so to the extent of Ford. 

The choice between aluminum and steel could make or break these two sets of rivals. Ford's decision to cover its next-generation F-150 with aluminum is a big risk, though that does mean its rewards are substantial as well. That could mean big things for investors in Ford's stock.

Ford isn't one to shy away from risks in search of great rewards. The biggest potential reward for automakers these days is capturing sales growth in China, which is already the world's largest auto market – and it's set to grow even bigger in coming years. In a Motley Fool special report, "2 Automakers to Buy for a Surging Chinese Market", we name two global giants poised to reap big gains that could drive big rewards for investors. Are you curious to see if Ford is one of those names? You can find out by reading this report right now for free – just click here for instant access.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

The Latest FTSE 100 Reshuffle

LONDON -- The latest quarterly review of the FTSE 100 has just been published. The review sees EVRAZ (LSE: EVR  ) and Polymetal International (LSE: POLY  ) drop out of the U.K.'s top index while and Persimmon (LSE: PSN  ) and Travis Perkins (LSE: TPK  ) join the blue-chip elite.

The FTSE committee made its decision after the market closed yesterday, and the changes take effect from the start of trading on June 24.

Russians retreat
Russian company EVRAZ -- the steelmaker controlled by Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich -- and precious-metals miner Polymetal International depart the FTSE 100 together, having also entered as a pair during December 2011.

Fears about demand from China in the case of EVRAZ and weak gold and silver prices in Polymetal's case have taken their toll on the shares.

With copper miner Kazakhmys having been demoted to the FTSE 250 at the previous quarterly review, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation is now the only ex-Soviet miner remaining in the FTSE 100. ENRC could also soon depart if a bid to take the company private is successful.

Not quite Coke
Coca Cola HBC AG is the world's second-largest bottler of products for The Coca-Cola Company. Coca Cola HBC (the HBC in the name comes from "Hellenic Bottling Company") has recently switched its primary stock market listing from Athens to London, and it would have entered the FTSE 100 at this review but for technical reasons.

The company has a market cap of £6 billion, which would put it comfortably in the middle of the top index, so look out for its entrance at the next review during September.

Builders benefit
Homebuilder Persimmon reenters the FTSE 100 having been ejected during the credit crunch year of 2008. Sentiment toward homebuilders has improved of late, and Persimmon's shares have gained 30% since the last quarterly review.

At a current price of 1,205 pence, the stock is trading at 17.4 times forecast earnings for 2013. That's on the high side compared with the broader market. But then, the broader market isn't forecast to deliver earnings growth in excess of 20% for each of the next two years; Persimmon is.

Further evidence of positive sentiment for the industry comes in the shape of building-materials supplier Travis Perkins. The company will be making its debut entry into the FTSE 100. I sang the praises of Travis Perkins as "a real sector dominator in the making" two or three years ago when the shares were trading at 840 pence on 10 times forecast earnings.

Today, the shares are changing hands for 1,538 pence, and the company is on a forward earnings multiple of 15.5. Analysts are forecasting mid-single-digit earnings growth for 2013, accelerating to mid-teens growth for 2014.

To finish up, let me say that if you're in the market for growth gems such as Travis Perkins, you may wish to read this exclusive Motley Fool report. You see, the company spotlighted in this report has subsidiaries with considerable growth potential that I don't believe the market has fully recognized. Just click here to download the report -- it's free.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Post-Holiday, Pentagon Slow to Return to Work Awarding Contracts

Showing that private sector workers aren't the only ones who have trouble "ramping back up" after a holiday, the Department of Defense eased back into its awarding of contracts the day after the July 4.

DoD issued a grand total of three -- yes, three -- contracts Friday, and one of those went to privately held TRI-COR Industries. As for the two contracts going to publicly traded companies, those were for:

$134 million: A cost-plus-incentive-fee modification to a previously awarded advance acquisition contract awarded to United Technologies (NYSE: UTX  ) to support Low Rate Initial Production Lot VI of the Joint Strike Fighter F135 Propulsion System -- that's the Pratt & Whitney engine that power's Lockheed's F-35 fighter jet. Engines included in this production "lot" are destined for the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, as well as for the militaries of Italy, the U.K., Turkey, Australia, the Netherlands, Canada, Norway, and Denmark. UTC is expected to complete work on this contract by December 2015. $10.8 million: Going to BAE Systems (NASDAQOTH: BAESY  ) under a 56-calendar day, firm-fixed-price contract to perform dry dock work on the Military Sealift Command's dry cargo/ammunition ship USNS Carl Brashear (T-AKE 7). Optional work under this contract, if exercised by the Navy, could increase the value of this contract to as much as $12.3 million, and extend it past its expected Sept. 25, 2013 completion date.

Is Nuclear Energy Dying Out?

In less than a year, three utilities have made the tough call to close down four nuclear reactors totaling 3,600 MW of combined capacity. Cheap power prices and expensive repairs are pushing some utilities to rethink their power sources, with potential ramifications for revenue down the line. Let's take a closer look to see who's opting out of nuclear – and what it means for your portfolio's profits.

Source: eia.gov 

1. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK  )
Duke Energy revealed plans in February to retire its Crystal River Unit 3 in Florida. The trouble began more than three years ago when a crack was discovered in the outer layer of the containment building's concrete wall, and Duke had been on the fence about whether to go through with the $900 million-$1.3 billion repair or cut its losses.

In a February statement, the utility noted that "the nature and potential scope of repairs brought increased risks that could raise the cost dramatically and extend the schedule."

In May, Duke also suspended plans for new nuclear units at a North Carolina site.

2. Dominion (NYSE: D  )
In May, Dominion pulled the plug on its 556 MW Kewaunee, Wis., nuclear station. Although Dominion noted at the time that it couldn't achieve the economies of scale it had initially hoped for with its Midwestern nuclear fleet, the nail in the coffin was exceedingly cheap electricity prices. Many of the station's power purchase agreements were about to be up for renewal, and projected wholesale electricity prices weren't looking good for Kewaunee to pull a profit.

But Dominion Nuclear President David Heacock took special care to note that "this closing does not herald the end of our company's commitment to nuclear power. It is a safe, reliable, and carbon-free technology, but as with all forms of generation, it must compete on economics, including the necessity of being price competitive on a regional level."

3. Edison International (NYSE: EIX  )
Most recently, Edison International announced a month ago today that it would permanently retire two nuclear units in San Onofre, Calif. Similar to Duke Energy, Edison's units were shut down in January 2012 after workers discovered a steam generator leak. Unlike Duke Energy, Edison's generators were manufactured by third-party Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and the utility is planning to seek damages.

In the meantime, Edison International will take a $300 million-$425 million post-tax Q2 hit and fire 1,100 workers as it explores alternative replacement options and transmission investments.

More nuclear, please
But even as these three utilities opt out of some of their nuclear capacity, other corporations are moving ahead with new nuclear construction totaling more than 5,600 MW.

In March 2012, Southern Company (NYSE: SO  ) received the first construction approval in over 30 years for two new units at its Vogtle plan in Georgia totaling 2,200 MW of electric capacity. SCANA (NYSE: SCG  ) wasn't far behind with approval for two units of its own in South Carolina totaling around 2,100 MW. Southern expects its units to come on line by 2017, while both of SCANA's will power up by 2019.

Source: eia.gov 

The nuance of nuclear
Each utility had reasons for retiring nuclear plants. In Duke and Edison International's cases, the decisions were (literally) spurred by cracks in their plans. For Dominion, unfortunate contract timing put it in an economic situation it couldn't avoid.

Likewise, Southern and SCANA have both managed to find new competitive options for nuclear generation, and other utilities like NextEra Energy are hard at work modernizing their current facilities.

Just like smart investors, these utilities have opted out of a one-size-fits-all electricity strategy and are making moves to maximize profit potential – whether that means nuclear or not. Each company's individual decision is most likely a good one, and investors shouldn't expect dividends to expand or diminish on nuclear alone.

For those of you who are still a bit more bullish on nuclear energy, we've picked one incredible utility company that presents a rare "double-play" investment opportunity today. We're calling it "The One Energy Stock You Must Own Before 2014," and you can uncover it today, totally free, in our premium research report. Click here to read more.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Does a College Education Matter Anymore?

As the interest rate on government-backed Stafford college loans prepares to double today -- from 3.4% to 6.8% -- for new student borrowers, the value of a post-high school education is, once again, under discussion. As many have sought to battle the recession by enrolling in college or graduate school, stories of the crippling debt a great number of students have taken on have been grabbing headlines. With unemployment remaining stubbornly high, many wonder if obtaining a college degree is worthwhile at all.

William C. Dudley, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, recently addressed this very issue. Late last week, Dudley answered the question, "Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?" with a qualified, "Sort of." Like others who have taken a good look at this issue, he found that the answer is not an easy one.

College still has value -- with qualifications
Most studies continue to show that workers with a college degree fare better than those without, particularly in times of economic recession. With the total U.S. student loan debt load totaling $1 trillion, however, much of this research has been trained on which degrees are apt to win the graduate a well-paying job.

The consensus of opinion remains that a college education puts job-seekers in a much better position than those with only a high-school diploma. A study published last summer from Georgetown University showed that from 1989 to 2012, job opportunities for those with at least a four-year college degree increased by 82% -- compared to 42% for a two-year degree. For those with high school diplomas -- or none at all -- employment prospects dimmed by a depressing -14%.

The latest news from Georgetown researchers takes a look at the type of college degrees that give students an edge -- and those that don't. Overall, the authors of the study maintain that a college degree is still valuable, noting that even an initial 8.9% unemployment rate for new graduates, while high, pales in comparison to the whopping 22.9% experienced by those heading into the workforce armed with only a high school diploma.

Some of the report's findings do not surprise at all. For instance, the study notes that unemployment is very high for architects because of the housing crash. And while information systems majors tend to have a high initial unemployment rate of 11.7%, the rate drops to only 5.4% as those who gain experience move up. Recent graduates in the health care and education fields find jobs rather easily, experiencing a low 5.4% initial unemployment rate.

Cost versus results
For college to be "worth it," then, students must weigh the value of a particular degree against its cost -- usually in long-term student loans -- and the chances of actually landing a job. For many, this scenario has not played out well at all, and a majority of Americans are now saddled with tens of thousands of dollars in student debt, which numerous graduates are finding to be an onerous burden.

This crushing debt is turning out to be a drag on the economy, too. The FRBNY noted earlier this year that money owed on student loans is preventing a whole generation of graduates from purchasing new cars and homes. In fact, the study showed that 30-year-olds without college debt, for the first time in a decade, are buying more homes than their debt-laden counterparts.

This is a real problem. A recent article in Forbes shows that 60% of all student debt has settled on the shoulders of those over 30 years of age, and that it takes, on average, 20 years to pay off such debt. Indeed, 15% of college loan debt is held by those over age 50.

For recent graduates, the feeling that they have made the right decision seems to be waning. A survey back in May showed that fully one-third of those polled said they now think they would be better off if they had entered the work force rather than pursued their college degree.

This feeling is shared by other age groups, too. An awesome series on the site Gawker.com collected "Unemployment Stories" for one year, and the personal stories are worth more than a casual read. Now, at the end of the series, the author outlined five lessons showcased by the responses, one of which is this: A college degree doesn't always help. Many reported lingering unemployment, now complicated, regretfully, by a higher debt load.

Still worthwhile?
Whether or not a college education is advantageous, it seems, depends on many variables -- not the least of which is a student's ability to pay the costs associated with a four-year degree, which seems to deliver the most bang for the buck. Still, the Great Recession has made having that piece of paper more important than ever.

Persistently high unemployment and rising education costs have left their mark, but the recession has been especially tough on those without college degrees. The disappearance of nearly 80% of jobs associated with an education level of high-school diploma or less since the recession began leaves workers with no choice but to retrain.

The interest rate hike on new student loans may yet be overturned, but the stark reality of the new job market is unlikely to give the vast majority of job seekers any true relief.

Tax increases that took effect at the beginning of 2013 affected nearly every American taxpayer. But with the right planning, you can take steps to take control of your taxes, and potentially even lower your tax bill. In our brand-new special report, "How You Can Fight Back Against Higher Taxes," the Motley Fool's tax experts run through what to watch out for in doing your tax planning this year. With its concrete advice on how to cut taxes for decades to come, you won't want to miss out. Click here to get your copy today -- it's absolutely free.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

Draghi's Guidance Light Is NFP Train At The End Of The Tunnel

U.S. June non-farm payrolls rose by 195K, surpassing forecasts of 165K, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 7.6%. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find 12 consecutive monthly readings of +100K NFP. Not only non-farm payrolls have shown three consecutive monthly net additions of greater than 190K, but 12 consecutive monthly readings above 100K -- the last time this was seen was in May 1999 to May 2000. The strong U.S. jobs report means the Fed's timing for autumn tapering remains on track, implying additional yield divergence between the U.S. and eurozone/U.K. to the detriment of prolonged losses in EUR and GBP vs. USD.

U.S.-German Yield Spread at Seven-Year Highs (German-U.S. at Seven-Year Lows)

On Thursday, ECB's Draghi made the step of moving toward forward guidance, borrowed the phrase long used by the Fed in stating: "monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time." The decision to finally resort to forward guidance in ensuring rates remain low is the verbal equivalent of announcing outright monetary transactions, whose goal was to rein in soaring Spanish and Italian bond yields.

Draghi had little choice to contain advancing yields stemming from Bernanke's tapering comments and Portugal's political instability. Portugal's 10-year yields hit the 8.0% level for the first time in seven months, posting seven straight weekly advances -- the longest in three years. As German yields fell and U.S. yields hit two-year highs at 2.71%, the U.S.-German 10-year differential soared to seven-year highs (shown inversely in the chart below to mirror the correlation with EUR/USD).

(click to enlarge)

The second half of the year started with a bang from the ECB and BoE (talking down rates), in! response to the thump in the final weeks of the first half of the year from the Fed (timing of tapering).

Looking into next week (and rest of the quarter), markets will closely watch the extent of the divergence between hawkish rhetoric at the Fed (partly in function of data) and dovish stance from Draghi and Carney. If the Fed finds no reason (from the data) to remove tapering plans from autumn, then markets will witness a sharp divergence in rates between U.S. yields and U.K. and eurozone yields, leading to a the next leg down in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

We continue to prefer EUR over GBP as EUR/GBP breaks above the four-year channel and the weak GBP becomes part and parcel of the Cameron-Osborne-Carney trio, whereas Draghi's priority remains that of lower yields. Eyeing 0.89 remains our medium-term view for EUR/GBP.

The main events to watch next week are Wednesday's release of the FOMC minutes (this will reveal comments from more hawkish members than Bernanke) and Thursday's BoJ meeting and subsequent conference from Kuroda, which will likely grease the wheels of further yen weakness ahead of the Upper House elections -- the source of Abe's power consolidation from both houses.

Source: Draghi's Guidance Light Is NFP Train At The End Of The Tunnel