Why Boston Beer Stumbled

In this video, Isaac Pino reviews Boston Beer's latest earnings and why they declined, including increased selling and advertising expenses, and the fleeting brand loyalty of the craft-beer business.

However, Boston Beer is rolling out canned beer, making its product more convenient and helping it compete with larger brewers. Isaac thinks Boston Beer is a classic buy and hold stock that and a dip may be a good time to get in.

Check out the video for more details.

Boston Beer's Samuel Adams brand helped to redefine beer and kick off the craft beer revolution in the United States. Success breeds competition, though, and while just a few years ago Boston Beer had claim over most of the craft beer shelf, today the field is crowded. Can Boston Beer rise above the rest, or will it be squeezed between small local breweries on one side and global beer giants on the other? To help you decide, we've compiled a premium research report filled with everything you need to know about Boston Beer's risks and opportunities. Just click here now to find out whether Boston Beer is a buy today.

This Family Member Is the Key to Big Investment Gains

The key to consistent long-term investment gains might seem elusive, but it's probably lurking under your roof right now. No, I'm not talking about charging your kids every time they raid the refrigerator or making your in-laws pay rent when they come out to visit.

Instead, your family pet -- be it a dog, cat, or even something as small as a fish -- could be your ticket to big investing gains.

You might think I'm nuts, or you may be completely against owning a pet, but, the results from a Harris Interactive poll last year are undeniable that pets are becoming deeply entrenched in American households.

According to the survey, which was conducted last year via an online survey of 2,634 adults, 91% of those who owned a pet considered that pet to be a part of the family -- up from 88% just five years prior. As such, many of these pets were entitled to certain perks, including the 67% of owners who admitted to letting their pet sleep in bed with them frequently or occasionally, the 61% who admitted to buying their pet a holiday present, and the 24% who admit to cooking specifically for their pet! I don't know about you, but I'd certainly love a quarter of my meals cooked for me!

The point here is simple, and especially easy to understand since I'm a pet owner myself: We will do whatever's necessary to ensure the health, well-being, and happiness of any of our family members. With greater than 60% of American households owning a pet, that represents a treasure trove of growing opportunity for investors.

Throw me a bone
There are a handful of different ways that you can approach investing in this space, in my opinion at least, so I'm not sure there's actually a wrong way among any of these ideas.

The most logical choice to invest in a burgeoning and ongoing domestication of our pets is by looking into pet superstores like PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM  ) . While online companies like PetMed Express (NASDAQ: PETS  ) offer the convenience of ordering medications from the comfort of your home, pets -- like humans -- need personalized care that you usually just can't get from the click of a mouse. This means that PetSmart is bound to stay busy with physical store visits from consumers who want only the best for Fido or their feline. And the proof is certainly in the pudding --PetSmart hasn't delivered an annual revenue decline once over the past decade with total sales up 125% since 2004.

Another great way to take advantage of a growing relationship between pet and owner is through pharmaceutical and diagnostic companies that cater to pets.

Zoetis (NYSE: ZTS  ) is a great example of a pharmaceutical play that would make a world of sense. The company's Slentrol is an anti-obesity pill approved in 2007 to treat chronic weight management issues in dogs. As I highlighted last month, a study by the Association of Pet Obesity Prevention estimates that some 80 million pets (about 55% of all pets) are currently overweight or obese. Slentrol, therefore, could be the perfect way to play this dangerous and growing obesity health risk. Not to mention that patents on pet drugs are generally meaningless since competition is often nonexistent. Most pharmaceutical companies won't invest the time to make pet biosimilars, which gives existing drugs a very long shelf life.

On the diagnostic side, there isn't a company better equipped to help veterinarians diagnose bone and organ disease, or help veterinarians improve the efficiency of their software, than IDEXX Laboratories (NASDAQ: IDXX  ) . From small diagnostic analyzers to high-tech digital imagery and even consultation calls, IDEXX does it all for owners and veterinarians. The best part is that the company's companion diagnostics make up the bulk (83%) of its revenue, so the chance of IDEXX seeing a slowdown in demand appears pretty minimal.

Let's also not forget about the physical surgical and veterinary centers themselves. VCA Antech (NASDAQ: WOOF  ) , for instance, operates more than 600 hospitals around the U.S., as well as 55 diagnostic laboratories. Like PetSmart, VCA hasn't seen a decline in revenue in any of the past 10 years, growing sales by 212% over that timespan thanks to growth in services rendered, ample pricing power, and strong ancillary sales of premium food and vitamins from its hospitals and veterinary centers.

Four paws of approval
As pet ownership increases in number, the above names should only be expected to see an increase in business and profits. Regardless if you're a pet owner yourself, the bond between pets and people is undeniably growing stronger, which should create a great investment opportunity over the long run.

Another great investing idea
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

What Buffett Says About Diversification Will Shock You

Working for StreetAuthority, I do a lot of different things.

In the course of a day, I may be writing an article, discussing potential picks with our staff, researching the next investing hotspot -- even going over Stock of the Month ideas with my colleagues.

And with so much going on, I find myself a little frazzled as the day goes on.

To combat this, I try to get to work about an hour earlier than the rest of the staff. Sometimes I work from home before I leave for the office. 

 

I don't do this to show off. I've simply found I can do more in that one hour (when I can focus on one task without distraction) than I can in two hours when the rest of the staff has the office buzzing.

Turning off the background noise allows me to simplify things -- and get better results.

What does this have to do with investing? A ton. 

Why Diversification Is Like Drinking From A Fire Hose
Sometimes the investing waters are as clear as mud to retail investors. After all, there are literally thousands of potential plays out there.

You could try to play a rebound in the automakers. You could day-trade the banks. You could stick with index funds and ride out any storm. You could even try to find companies that are simply undervalued and will rebound once the market notices.

But the problem is that there are too many options -- it's like trying to drink from a fire hose. Too many choices make it hard to nail down the one investment that will make your portfolio a winner.

Instead, like I do every morning by getting an early start, I think successful investors need to turn off the distractions and focus their attention to a small group of the best ideas -- drink from a glass instead of a fire hose.

By shrinking your portfolio, you'll find:

• It's easier to stay on top of your investments: If you have a portfolio of 50 stocks, how well can you pay attention to each one?

Even if you spend just an hour each week reading up on each one, you'd have a full-time job (plus 10 hours of overtime) just to give each holding its due.

And with this market, it's more important than ever to watch your holdings. Instead, a portfolio of just 10 to 12 of your best picks would need significantly less time to track each week, and you'll likely sleep better at night knowing you've done your homework.

• Better portfolio performance: Which do you think would average higher on a test: an entire class full of students, or a handful of the smartest students as picked by the teacher?

The answer is obvious -- and it's the same with your portfolio.

Look through your holdings. If you have upwards of 30, 40, even 50 holdings or more, I bet you'll find some that you think are just OK. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if you have some you don't even like but simply haven't sold yet.

Instead, what if ! you culled your portfolio to just your favorite picks? Wouldn't your portfolio be in much better shape going forward? You'd have the cream of the crop, instead of the entire field. Remember, it's hard to outperform the market if your portfolio is the market.

• That you're not alone in trimming down your portfolio: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) holds just 42 publicly traded U.S. stocks. That's a lot for an individual investor, but for a company with billions at its disposal, it's surprisingly few. On top of that, Berkshire's top five holdings make up 73% of its portfolio.

Buffett is a proponent of positioning a portfolio to take advantage of the best picks. He's even gone as far as saying:

"If it's your game, diversification doesn't make sense. It's crazy to put money into your 20th choice rather than your first choice. It's the 'LeBron James' analogy. If you have basketball phenom LeBron James on your team, don't take him out of the game just to make room for someone else."

If the world's greatest investor is following this approach, shouldn't you?

Individual Stocks Can Still Do Well, No Matter The Market
Warren Buffett's school of thought is one of the main tenets of my Stock of the Month newsletter and its $100,000 real-money portfolio. Think about it: Our economy continues to run hot and cold. Investors are still skittish about unemployment, interest rates, housing, the Middle East -- the list goes on.

But no matter what's happening, there are always some stocks doing well. And if you focus on a select group of your best picks, you can profit immensely. 

Take a look at some of my recent picks:

Costco (Nasdaq: COST) is up 27% since I bought it nearly a year ago. Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) is up 51% in the nine months I've owned it. In all of my 41 closed trades, only seven have lost money. And the majority of them have returned double-digit returns.   

Action to Take --> I understand that years of conditioning by the financial media have led millions of investors to think diversification is crucial to success. And it is, if you want to merely match the market. (Not to mention line your broker's pocketbook.) But that's not what I strive to do. I doubt you do either.

P.S. - Remember that I'm not just paying lip service to investing in your best ideas. I have $100,000 in actual cash behind my Stock of the Month portfolio. So far the performance has been great -- 85% of my closed trades have posted positive returns. You can get all the details here.

How LivePerson Survived the Notorious Bubble Burst

The following video excerpt was taken from an interview with Robert LoCascio, founder and CEO of LivePerson (NASDAQ: LPSN  ) , as he talks about what was behind the company's incredible success story. In this segment, he discusses how his company survived the bursting of the dot-com bubble burst.

A transcript follows the video.

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Brendan Byrnes: You went public essentially at the worst time a company could have possibly gone public, right in the middle of the bubble bursting. Talk about what that was like, and how did LivePerson get through it? There was a point in time where a lot of people thought you weren't going to get through it.

Robert LoCascio: Yes, there were about 20, I think 20 companies priced that week to go public, and only 10 of us went public. And I remember on Friday, when we priced the deal, basically the underwriters were like, "Look, if you don't take it, we have to cut the deal in half, then you won't go public on Monday; there will be no more IPOs." And so it was an amazing experience, because the market was up and down. We'd go visit fund managers, and they'd be, like, staring at the TV, watching the Nasdaq crater, and they're looking at us and persevered. I remember being at the end of the road show and just thinking, "We have to do this. We have to just focus. We've got to make it out the door." And we were a lucky one of the few to make it out and survive.

Risk of hiring veterans ‘overblown,’ experts say

The way Margaret Plattner sees it, veterans are a good investment for employers.

"They've had leadership training, discipline training, they know how to be at work on time, they know how to be responsible," said Plattner, deputy commissioner of the Kentucky Department of Veterans Affairs.

But sometimes, veterans entering the civilian workforce have to overcome stereotypes that they might be unreliable, or even violent, due to combat-related stress or mental illness.

And that's generally unfair and unfounded, experts say.

"There clearly are some employers who get nervous about veterans because they've seen the media and kind of the sensationalized cases, and they think it's probably going to happen to them," said Tony Zipple, president and chief executive of Seven Counties Services in Louisville.

But even veterans with a mental illness "aren't likely to explode in the way you see on TVs and (in the) movies," said Eric Russ, a licensed clinical psychologist at the University of Louisville. "That kind of behavior is very rare."

Just as with civilian hires, he said, "You might not even know that someone you're working with or someone you know is suffering."

Still, mental health issues, along with blast wounds, have been called the "signature injuries" of the military conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Last year, a report from the Institute of Medicine noted that an estimated 13 percent to 20 percent of the 2.6 million U.S. service members who'd served in Iraq or Afghanistan since 2001 may have post-traumatic stress disorder, a condition marked by flashbacks, avoidance and being easily startled.

And earlier this year, USA TODAY reported that mental-health problems, such as PTSD, led to more hospitalizations than any other medical condition in the military in 2012. In some cases, troops remained hospitalized more than a month.

Zipple said that while veterans are more likely to suffer from PTSD, depression, substance abuse and anxiety-related condition! s than the general population, that doesn't "necessarily make them any worse or any riskier of a hire."

"A very, very large cross-section of the general population has some combination of these same conditions as well," Zipple said. "If you said we're not going to hire anybody that has an issue with depression and takes an antidepressant, you'd have big chunks of the population that would never work again."

Millions have PTSD

About 7.7 million U.S. adults — or about 3.5 percent of the American adult population — have post-traumatic stress disorder, according to the National Institute of Mental Health. Mood disorders, including chronic depression and bipolar disorder, affect about 20.9 million U.S. adults, or about 9.5 percent of the U.S. adult population.

Anyone can develop PTSD after a traumatic event, such as a car accident or a natural disaster, said Tom Lawson, an Army veteran and professor in UofL's Kent School of Social Work. "That doesn't mean that you're still not a good employee or cannot work."

Former Marine Rebecca Munoz, photographed Monday, Nov. 4, 2013, stands outside of the VA Hospital where she is currently a peer support specialist.(Photo: Alton Strupp, The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal)

Rebecca Muñoz, a Marine Corps veteran who has dealt with mental illness, puts it this way: "I am Rebecca who happens to have a diagnosis and that's all it is. It's like having diabetes, high blood pressure — no different. That's all it is."

Furthermore, "most veterans come back without any diagnosable mental illness," said Russ, an assistant professor in the UofL Department of Psychiatry. For those veterans who need help with PTSD, depression and substance abuse, "we have a much better understanding of a! ll of the! se conditions than we did say, for example, in Vietnam," Russ said.

And "the outlook is really good if they get treatment," he said. "The longer you go with an untreated illness, the more likely it is to interfere with your life," leading to job loss or other problems, such as troubled relationships with friends and spouses.

Muñoz, 41, of Louisville received treatment from the Veterans Affairs Medical Center to cope with bipolar disorder, also known as manic-depressive illness. The condition, which causes shifts in mood and energy, had led other treatment providers to tell her to stop trying to find work and file for disability instead.

But with help from the VA Medical Center's Compensated Work Therapy program, she was able to control her illness and now works as a peer support specialist for the VA, helping other veterans recover from mental illness.

Through her work with the VA, Muñoz said she's found that employers often are willing to make adjustments to help a good employee. For example, they may let PTSD sufferers who don't like loud noises wear headphones. "There are ways to advocate for yourself and there are places who can help you advocate for yourself," she said.

Army veteran John Penezic, 46, of Louisville said some veterans choose to cope with their symptoms by isolating themselves in some way. For example, he avoided fireworks shows for years because the "booms" would eat at him and crowds made him uncomfortable. Also, after ending his 16-year military career in 2008, he would gravitate toward jobs that would allow him to work around other veterans such as doing outreach with homeless veterans for the Volunteers of America of Kentucky.

"Many veterans feel that 'Civilians won't understand me,'" said Penezic, who's dealt with PTSD symptoms for years but never been formally diagnosed.

Finding a good match

When looking to hire a veteran — or anyone else — it's important to look at various factors to determine whether the person is a good m! atch, Zip! ple said. "If they've got the qualifications and they've got good work experience and they've got good references, I wouldn't think of them as being any riskier (of a) hire than anyone else in the general population," he said.

Furthermore, "if they're getting decent supports and services, if they're getting good treatment, there's no reason why they can't be hugely successful in every walk of life," he said.

Is Westport Innovations Running Out of Gas?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: After today's 7% drop, Investors in natural gas engine tech expert Westport Innovations  (NASDAQ: WPRT  ) have been hammered down 58% during the past six weeks. The falling stock price is a product of bad business results, and greater macro fears. On September 30, Westport revised its guidance for the full year down a whopping 25%, and stated that it would fall short of its goal of adjusted EBITDA-positive results for its three operating segments. Management cited Europe -- its biggest market for its core business -- remained soft, along with Russia and China, as well as delays in its co-development agreements with heavy-duty truck and engine makers to bring its high-pressure, direct-injection, or HPDI, technology to the market. 

Furthermore, the price of oil has fallen as much as 20% since June on increased supply and relatively flat demand. This matters for Westport because one of the primary drivers of natural gas engines is the cost-savings of NG versus both gasoline and diesel. 

So what: Unlike natural gas refueling leader Clean Energy Fuels  (NASDAQ: CLNE  ) , which has seen its stock fall more than 40% during the same time, the news is certainly material to Westport Innovations, and it largely "earned" the pummeling the market has given it. However, it's important to separate what's material from what isn't. Let's start with oil prices.

The cost differential between gas and diesel and natural gas is the primary driver behind sales of NGVs, and the falling price of oil can spook the market pretty quickly. However, oil would have to fall much farther to have a serious impact on the cost advantage of natural gas. However, softness in Westport's biggest markets, and delays in HPDI -- which is supposed to be a big driver for growth -- is clearly material. 

However, there are a couple of bright spots out there. First, sales of Westport's 12 liter ISX12 G, being co-built with Cummins  (NYSE: CMI  ) , are on track to meet targets for 2014 according to a number of industry experts. Sales of natural gas trucks in 2014 are expected to have grown 27% this year versus 2013. Also, part of the delay in bringing HPDI to market is Westport's shift to HPDI 2.0, and the adoption of HPDI 2.0 by development partners like AB Volvo  (NASDAQOTH: VOLVY  ) . The injector components are expected to be manufactured in Westport's venture with Delphi Automotive  (NYSE: DLPH  ) , and the costs will be less than earlier versions, helping natural gas engines be more cost-competitive with diesel. 

Now what: This is yet another in a series of delayed results from Westport, and I can't fault investors who decide to move on. However, It's worth acknowledging that the heavy trucking market that HPDI is targeted at is historically very slow to adopt change. When you consider that each truck costs more than $100,000 -- and that the NG version can add an extra $50K  -- and that the refueling infrastructure has been slow to roll out in many areas, it's understandable that truck and engine makers aren't rushing to build engines before they know there will be demand.

Another year, another delay from Westport. I intend to hold -- largely because Westport's technology is still valuable as demonstrated by its partnerships; but also because there has been pretty decent growth so far from the ISX12 G. This is evidence that -- eventually -- natural gas engine adoption will ramp up in heavy trucking, even if the industry is moving at a glacial pace right now.

Furthermore, management has cut operational expense in recent quarters, and the company's capital position is probably sufficient for another year or maybe two. That should be enough time for adoption to start ramping up, and Westport to be closer to profitability. If you're tired of waiting, I understand. It's still going to take time for the story to play out. 

Warren Buffett's worst auto-nightmare (Hint: It's not Tesla)
A major technological shift is happening in the automotive industry. Most people are skeptical about its impact. Warren Buffett isn't one of them. He recently called it a "real threat" to one of his favorite businesses. An executive at Ford called the technology "fantastic." The beauty for investors is that there is an easy way to ride this megatrend. Click here to access our exclusive report on this stock.

Eleven Overhyped Products That Failed

Were you excited about the arrival of New Coke? Do you still have some old LaserDiscs stashed in the back of your closet?

These products that failed also happened to be among the most overhyped in history.

That's the sort of thing that keeps CEOs awake at night, because overhyped products that fail also tend to be public relations nightmares.

Predicting a failed product is not as easy as it might seem, however, since products can fail for a lot of reasons.

It could be that no one wants it, or that an unexpected fatal flaw arises, or that it's just not that good.

Each of these 11 products that flopped has a cautionary tale to tell...

11 Overhyped Products That Failed

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 1: New Coke. Perhaps the most amazing product blunder of all time, The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) launched New Coke in 1985 in response to market share losses to rival PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP). Incredibly, the company replaced its flagship product with the new formula rather than simply adding a new beverage to the product line. Public outrage ensued, and Coca-Cola was forced to bring back the "Classic" drink just 79 days later.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 2: The Zune. Five years after Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) reinvented the portable music player with the iPod, Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) came out with its copycat Zune player, hoping to get a piece of the action. The problem was that while the Zune was more or less as good as the iPod, it was a Johnny-come-lately product trying to crack a market that the iPod totally dominated. The iPhone and iPod Touch debuted within a year, further dooming the Zune. Microsoft was forced to give up on the product altogether in 2011.

You really have to wonder what the top executives at these companies were thinking when they gave these products the thumbs up...

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 3: The XFL. Seeing an opportunity that wasn't there, World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: WWE) and NBC Universal (NYSE: CMCSA) teamed up in 2001 to create the short-lived XFL. And by short-lived, we mean one season. A reaction to the rule-heavy NFL, the XFL featured teams with violent names like the "Hitmen" and far fewer penalties. It also featured a lot of lousy players, and ratings tanked after the first week.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 4: Newton. The period of time at Apple when Steve Jobs was in exile featured several miscues. But none was bigger than the Newton personal digital assistant. Today it looks laughably obsolete, but it was an impressive achievement back in 1993. Apple's mistake was to oversell the handwriting recognition feature, which was quite buggy. That failing ended up defining Newton, even though the handwriting recognition improved greatly over the life of the product. Jobs killed Newton upon his return in 1998, but perfected the concept a few years later with the iPhone.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 5: The Edsel. Along with New Coke, Ford Motor Co.'s (NYSE: F) Edsel is a legend among product failures. Ford invested heavily in the auto's development, but the car, introduced in 1957 with much fanfare, failed to deliver on any level. Customers were unimpressed with the styling, and the pricing positioned the Edsel confusingly between existing Ford and Mercury models. Sales were abysmal, and Ford discontinued the car in 1960.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 6: Windows Vista. Despite its dominance of the PC operating system market, Microsoft has had a rocky history with updates. Vista arrived five years after the popular Windows XP, and soon had users crying foul. It was buggy and slow, and its emphasis on improved security had the side effect of disabling a lot of older hardware and software. Many people who bought and installed Vista hated it so much they downgraded back to XP. Fortunately for Microsoft, Windows 7, released in 2009, got a much better reception.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 7: Olestra. Discovered by researchers at The Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) in 1968, the fat substitute Olestra was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 1996 for use in snack foods. Two years later Frito-Lay launched its "WOW" line of chips, with a marketing campaign boasting of a fat-free chip. There was just one problem: Olestra does not get along particularly well with the human digestive system. Wrote Fast Company: "Sadly, the result was similar to that of a laxative - stomach cramps and diarrhea prevailed." Comedians pounced, as did the media, and sales plummeted. WOW chips were pulled from store shelves, but Olestra survived. After some tweaking in the lab, it lives on as Olean in several of Frito-Lay's "Light" versions of its chips.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 8: Google Glass. Some might say it's too early to declare Google Inc.'s (Nasdaq: GOOG, GOOGL) best-known wearable tech product as a failure, but it's hard to see Google Glass recovering from the backlash it got when it debuted. Not only are people reluctant to wear the product because of how nerdy it makes them look, but anxiety over the device's camera has led to harassment of several Glass wearers. Apart from its questionable fashion sense, Google has never made it clear why anyone should shell out $1,500 for this thing.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 9: Smokeless Cigarettes. Concern over the health hazards from cigarette smoking led R.J. Reynolds (NYSE: RAI) to invest $325 million in the1980s to create a breakthrough product - a smokeless cigarette dubbed "Premier." Instead of burning the tobacco, it simply heated it. That got rid of 70% of the carbon monoxide and all of the tar, but with one unfortunate consequence: Premier tasted awful and "smelled like burning garbage," according to Advertising Age. Within four months of its debut in 1989, Premier was history.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 10: LaserDiscs. Before DVDs and Blu-Ray there were LaserDisks, a digital format for video as big as an old vinyl LP. They launched in 1978, just two years after the venerable VCR, but offered much better quality. But LaserDiscs were also a lot more expensive, and the movie studios released fewer films in the format than for VHS. On top of all that, there was no way for users to record their own. By the late 1990s, the format was fading, to be killed off for good by the arrival of DVDs.

Overhyped Products That Failed No. 11: Arch Deluxe Burger.

When you think of McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD), you think of an upscale clientele, right? Hmmm... maybe not. But that was the demographic the fast food giant targeted with its Arch Deluxe burger in 1996. And McDonald's spent a staggering $100 million to promote it. Unfortunately, it was expensive and, at 610 calories, not very healthy. But the worst sin was that it wasn't all that tasty. McDonald's gradually phased out the ill-conceived burger.

Follow me on Twitter @DavidGZeiler.

UP NEXT: While Apple has had its miscues over the years, it has managed to live up to the hype more often than not. Case in point: The iPhone 6. After months of hype, the latest iPhone sold a record-breaking 10 million units in is first weekend. But this success story is only just getting started...

Should Chipotle Mexican Grill Investors Beware of Super Duper Size Me?

Health food?  Source:  Chipotle Mexican Grill

Organic healthy food is all the rage, and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG  ) is right in the center of it. As many consumers ditch unhealthy traditional fast food, such as what comes from McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) , Chipotle finds its sales and income continually busting new records. Its "Food With Integrity" is at the right place at the right time. But is it really a healthy alternative?

Super Size Me
Recall about a decade ago, the anti-McDonald's documentary Super Size Me. To prove a point, the star of the movie ate nothing but McDonald's for a period of 30 days, and consumed the massive calories that came with it. By all measures, Morgan Spurlock, the star of the film, quickly became unhealthy -- he gained more than 24 pounds. He reportedly made the film out of concern about the obesity epidemic going on in the United States.

McDonald's responded by axing the super-option from its menus. There's not much hard evidence to suggest that the film itself hurt McDonald's top or bottom line. Then again, McDonald's never exactly claimed to be a health-food mecca in the first place. It's not like we were scoffing down double quarter pounders with cheese and fries and a milkshake without knowing it wasn't exactly the most nutritious option out there.

Source: Chipotle Mexican Grill

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill really any better?
Chipotle Mexican Grill is very good at marketing and creating a perception of healthy. The company has managed to steer full attention to its non-antibiotic, non-hormone, non-GMO, grass-fed organic food. What are the long-term health benefits of, for example, non-GMO versus GMO? The jury is still mostly out. But one thing we do know for sure from a plethora of data is that excessive amounts of fats, carbohydrates, and calories are a recipe for bad health.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Steve Ells, founder of Chipotle Mexican Grill, was asked, "Has McDonald's changed its business plan because of Steve Ells?" He was a bit evasive, but one of the other commentators stated, "I go into a Chipotle and it's like nutrition."

Odd. I appreciate the top-quality ingredients that are my red meat, pork, cheese, sour cream, and salsa, which are all rolled up into a burrito the size of a basketball; but let's step back a minute here. Is its over-sized food really that healthy in a country where obesity is becoming the No.1 cause of premature death?

Big Mac ain't so big
McDonald's food almost seems like diet food when you talk numbers. Take the signature Big Mac, for example. A Big Mac has 550 calories, 29 grams of fat, and 46 carbs. A Chipotle Mexican Grill burrito with steak, brown rice, black beans, tomato salsa, sour cream, and cheese packs on more than 1,000 calories, 41 grams of fat, and 109 carbs.

Throw on a McDonald's large side of fries with 542 calories, and even that is less than a Chipotle Mexican Grill side of chips and guacamole. And you thought McDonald's was bad. Ells is right to point out that "you" are in charge of what goes on your burrito; you are in control of what you eat. However, the same could be said about McDonald's, which offers salads and other alternatives to burgers and fries.

Ells says in the interview that people seeking lower-calorie options can order a salad with grilled meat, tomato salsa, and some cheese. According to Chipotle's website, that 11-ounce salad with chicken has 310 calories, 14.5 grams of fat, and 7 carbs. McDonald's offers several grilled-meat salads of similar size, but less calories and fat.

Healthy growth and fattened wallets
Over the last five years consumers and investors have embraced Chipotle Mexican Grill more than McDonald's. During that time, Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock has risen around 600% while McDonald's investors are sitting on doubles (or is it McDoubles?)

From 2008 to 2013, McDonald's revenue grew 20% to $28 billion while net income jumped 30% to $5.6 billion. Chipotle Mexican Grill meanwhile tacked on 141% revenue growth to $3.2 billion and 318% net income growth to $327 million. It looks like we're all consuming a lot more calories these days of the two, which is helping investors in both grow financially strong and healthy.

Foolish takeaway
At the end of the day, perception rules. Right now, the perception is that Chipotle Mexican Grill is healthy and McDonald's is not, even if you consume double the calories, fat, and carbs. However, perceptions can change, and Chipotle Mexican Grill is potentially more vulnerable, and has more to lose, if consumers wake up to the reality that the food may not be as healthy as they think -- whereas they were never fooled by McDonald's. Just be on the lookout for a Super Duper Size Me documentary about Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Leaked: Apple's next smart device (warning, it may shock you)
Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!

4 Pharmaceutical Stocks to Buy Now

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This week, four pharmaceutical stocks are improving their overall ratings on Portfolio Grader. Each of these stocks is rated an “A” (“strong buy”) or “B” overall (“buy”).

NuPathe Inc. () is making progress this week as its rating of C (“hold”) from last week increases to a B (“buy”) rating this week. NuPathe develops pharmaceutical products used for the treatment and management of neurological and psychiatric diseases. In Portfolio Grader’s specific subcategories of Earnings Momentum and Earnings Revisions, PATH also gets A’s. .

This week, Watson Pharmaceuticals () is showing good progress as the company’s rating jumps from a B (“buy”) last week to an A (“strong buy”). Watson develops, manufactures, markets, sells and distributes pharmaceutical products. .

This week, Impax Laboratories, Inc.’s () ratings are up from a C last week to a B. Impax Laboratories develops, manufactures, and markets both proprietary and multi-source pharmaceutical products utilizing its drug delivery technologies. .

Mylan () shows solid improvement this week. The company’s rating rises from a B to an A. Mylan is a global generic and specialty pharmaceuticals company. .

Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here.

Prudential, MetLife Gain After Senate Eases Dodd-Frank for Insurers

Prudential Financial Inc. and MetLife Inc. rallied after the Senate approved a bill that gives Federal Reserve regulators more flexibility in how they apply capital rules to the biggest U.S. life insurers.

Prudential climbed 2.4% to $88.09 at 4:01 p.m. Wednesday in New York. It was up 0.16% in afternoon trading Thursday. MetLife jumped 3%, the biggest gain in the 83- company Standard and Poor’s 500 Financials Index, but was down 0.64% Thursday afternoon.

The bill eases a Dodd-Frank Act provision that imposes bank-like capital standards on insurers that are deemed systemically important. Prudential was named systemically important last year and MetLife is in the final stage of a government review to determine whether it gets the same designation.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that the Fed will be given the flexibility to tailor its regulation of insurance companies,” Ed Mills, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, wrote in a research note today. “This should be a strong positive for the insurance firms deemed systemically important.”

MetLife has said regulatory uncertainty poses the biggest challenge to meetings its profitability target. The New York- based insurer hasn’t authorized a share repurchase since 2008.

Prudential Vice Chairman Mark Grier said today that he’s encouraged by the Senate’s action, and that the Newark, New Jersey-based insurer can meet any reasonable capital standard.

The Dodd-Frank section that’s being modified was written by Susan Collins, a Maine Republican and required the Fed to set minimum capital and leverage standards for non-bank firms, including the insurance industry. Collins has said her provision wasn’t meant to subject insurance companies to the same standards as banks, and the proposed revision was broadly supported by senators from both parties.

To become law, the bill, S. 2270, would need to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by President Barack Obama.

--With assistance from Craig Giammona in New York.

---

Check out Funds as SIFIs Would Be ‘Too Burdened to Succeed’: ICI Chief on ThinkAdvisor.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals: Another Double?

Can a stock that has already more than tripled this year double from here? If it’s Intercept Pharmaceutcials (ICPT), then the answer could be yes, says Wedbush analyst Liana Moussatos.

Last night, Intercept reported that the FDA had granted fast-track status to its obeticholic acid, or OCA, for treating primary biliary cirrhosis, or PBC, in which the bile ducts in the liver are destroyed. Moussatos discusses the implications for Intercept Pharmaceuticals:

The FDA designates Fast-Track status to a therapy that treats a condition that has no current therapy or to a therapy that shows some advantage over available therapy, such as superior effectiveness or the ability to address an emerging or anticipated public health need. The company and we believe the designation signals that the FDA recognizes that OCA has the potential to address a significant unmet need. Currently, the only approved treatment for PBC is ursodiol, and about half of PBC patients who are unable to tolerate or have an inadequate response have no other treatment options except for liver transplant. With Fast-Track designation, Intercept is eligible for more frequent meetings and written communications with the FDA. Additionally, there is the potential for a faster review process (6 months vs. 10 months) for OCA.

Moussatos expects a third-quarter trial update to be the next catalyst for Intercept Pharma’s stock, which she says has an acquisition value of $493.

Shares of Intercept Pharmaceuticals have gained 2.9% to $240.73 at 10:17 a.m. today.

Green Automotive Has the Pedal to the Metal (TSLA, KNDI, GACR)

Prior to today, competitors (yet frenemies) like Kandi Technologies Group Inc. (NASDAQ:KNDI) and Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) could only wonder what kind of traction that electric vehicle maker Green Automotive Co. (OTCMKTS:GACR) has been getting, with most of  the pieces of its revenue puzzle not being laid until the latter half of last year. TSLA and KNDI don't have to wait any longer, however, as GACR put it all out there today. While it might be overdoing it to say Kandi Technologies or Tesla should be worried about the kinds of results - and the kind of growth - Green Automotive is getting, it wouldn't be inaccurate to say GACR's numbers are something the rest of the EV industry should take note of.... this little player is coming on strong.

While Tesla Motors certainly needs no introduction, and Kandi Technologies Group doesn't need much of one (the company makes tiny electric vehicles that are handy but not highway legal in the U.S., mainly to serve the Chinese market), Green Automotive Co. might need something of an explanation. It's a company that could very easily be the next great electric vehicle name, but so far has kept its focus on serving as a retailer of other company's electric vehicles in the UK, as a repair shop for EVs in the same market, and as a builder/designer of shuttle buses in the United States; the electric bus market is by far the company's biggest opportunity - and opportunity that it panning out too, according to this morning's quarterly filing.

All told, last quarter, GACR generated $1.4 million in sales. No, it's not a lot, but it's a lot for this particular $10.9 million company. Not only was it a record-breaker, but it was the third straight quarter of rising revenue, validating all of the initiatives and acquisitions Green Automotive Co. implemented last year. Sequentially, GACR grew revenue from $218K in the first quarter of 2013 to $429K in the second quarter to $1.0 million in Q3 to the fourth quarter's top line of $1.4 million. If there was any doubt that Green Automotive was the real deal, the persistent growth pace should have put them to bed by now.

With all of that being said, there's a critical - and compelling - footnote that needs to be added to the Green Automotive story - the bulk of that sales growth is attributable to sales of electric busus. Thing is, even the fourth quarter's top line doesn't do the electric shuttle bus opportunity its due justice.

Though it didn't start Q4 out at this pace, by the end of the fourth quarter, Green Automotive - through its Newport Coachworks subsidiary - was building electric buses at a pace of 2 per week. That's uncanny, given that the manufacture of electric shuttle buses didn't begin at all until March. At 2 busus per week at an estimated average retail price of $100,000 apiece, the Newport Coachworks division alone is capable of generating $2.6 million in quarterly revenue. The company, however, has two other key divisions with which it can also drive sales.... its Goin' Green retail network, and its Liberty E-care EV maintenance division.

And yes, those buses are highly marketable. The company sold fourteen electric shuttle buses at the February limousine and charter show in Las Vegas, in their public debut; more orders may have trickled in since then. Bigger and better still, the current backlog of buses to be built stands just shy of (and this isn't a misprint) 500. That's guaranteed revenue for at least a few years.

Green Automotive noted in today's press release that it was going to offer some more details and a revenue forecast for 2014 later this week. That will add some color to today's news, though even with the data that investors gleaned today, it's clear that GACR is making strong forward progress.

For more on Green Automotive Co., visit the SCN research page here, or review the SCN research report here. For deeper details on GACR and its EV opportunities, this report from Wall Street Research takes a much closer look.

ON THE MARKET - Scary bullish and extended

Pre-market – Monday 1-6-2014

"The just price is the price established by the 'common estimation' [17] of buyers and sellers."

Saint Thomas Aquinas

1225 -1274

Dr. John L. Faessel

ON THE MARKET

Commentary and Insights

Quotes of the day

"Euphoria will always periodically produce extended bull markets that feed off herd behavior [and herd thinking], followed by rapid fear-induced deflation of the consequent bubbles."

&

"The Federal Reserve Board's highly sophisticated forecasting system did not foresee a recession until the crisis hit. Nor did the model developed by the prestigious International Monetary Fund." (5)

&

"It was not apparent in the early 2000s, as many commentators retroactively assume that subprime securities were headed toward being the toxic asset they turned out to be." (9)

~ Alan Greenspan ~

Quotes are from his new book:

The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting

***

MARKET

The Market backed off it recent new highs established on New Year's eve but plenty of 'breakout support' lies at 1813. The long term trend and short term trend are up. We have backed off some recent 'minor' overboughtness. (McClellan Oscillator that ticked a plus 171 on Dec 24th) Friday's McC posting was a plus 91. We are still in the thick of the seasonal strength / Santa Rally so from a broad overview it all looks bullish and 'rosy'.

However… such is the case a tops and for me this stock market picture is extended, bullish sentiment is boiling with some models* (VIX) included at multiyear and decadelows, the advance / decline line if backing off (a la 1999 -2000) - i.e. participation is beginning to wane; price is 33% above the 200-day moving average i.e. that's hyper extended. And there's a mega debt catastrophe brewing that has me beyond edgy and the country's leadership is – well there isn't any…. In a world that is coming unglued. Yea I know it's a wall of worry, but at some point a foxhole makes sense – and wear a helmet.

To the sky and beyond

Alert:

Multiyear and Cycle highs in Bullish Sentiment

1.Notable super low 0.6 CBOE Put / Call Volume posting of 12/24/2013 was the lowest registration since December 2007 of 0.59. The 12/23/2013 post of 0.61 was also the lowest since December2007.

2.Last week the Citigroup "Panic / Euphoria" Model rose to decade highs @ plus 0.60 in the Euphoria Zone. That's up from last week's 0.52. In early 2000 it ticked its all-time high at plus 0.72. At the end of June, 2011 it ticked cycle lows of minus0.31 in the Panic mode.

One for the Bulls

According to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg Earnings:

The full S&P 500 will climb 9.7 percent in 2014, almost twice the rate of 2013,. Profit growth will come as sales increase 3.8 percent, up from the 2.2 percent last year, and the economy expands 2.6 percent, faster than last year's 1.7 percent, forecasts show. Link here

Notable Selling by Major Players

1.In the latest filing for Warren Buffett's holding company Berkshire Hathaway, (BRK-A) Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, (JNJ) and reduced his overall stake in "consumer product stocks" by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.(INTC)

2.George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

3.John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson's hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM). The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar (FDO) and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Quick Video of Note

House of mirrors market distorts value: James Grant – Link here

S&P 500

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed Friday at 1831.37 - the prior Friday it was 1841.40

Price resistance is at the top tick of 1849 registered on Tuesday 12/31/2013.

Intermediate price resistance is at 1838 / 39

The 50-day moving average support is 1792

Short term 'Price' support is at 1827

The a bit further out 1825 / 1818 / 1806/ 1792

The 200-day moving average support is at 1682

The top trend line of the channel that goes back 2009 to at (SPX) 1784 - 'that' previous resistance was breached on October 22nd.

Channel and trend line support of (November 2012) is at 1746

Then deep channel and trend line support of (October 2011) is at 1632

Then the deepest channel and trend line support of (March 2009) is at 1410

* This Week's Investor Sentiment

The Bullishness / Bearishness complex overview is 'high' but mixed with one notable exception that's hitting decade highs in Bullishness.

(High BULLISH readings in the Investor Sentiment Readings usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.)

The Citigroup "Panic / Euphoria" Model rose to decade highs @ plus 0.60 in the Euphoria Zone. That's up from last week's 0.52. In early 2000 it ticked its all-time high at plus 0.72. At the end of June, 2011 it ticked cycle lows of minus0.31 in the Panic mode.

The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII]Investor Sentiment Survey of BULLISHNESS slid to 43.1% from last week's 55.1% that was the highest post in 10-months. It posted cycle lows of 22.2% on 7/23/2012 the lowest percentile since August 2010. Long-Term Average: Bullish: 39.0%

The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII] Investor Survey of BEARISHNESS rose to 29.3% from last week's 18.5%.

13- weeks ago it registered the lowest read since 1/12/2012 at 17.6%. Cycle highs of Bearishness of 54.5% were posted 19-weeks ago. Long-Term Average: Bearish: 30.5%

Consensus Index of BULLISH sentiment is at 75%, that's down from last week's 765 and from the cycle and multi-year highs of 78% established 5-weeks ago. The new cycle highs in Bullishness of 78% topped the top of 77% Bullish posted on 10/11/2007.

The Market Vane (Market Letter Survey) duplicated last week's posting of 67%. In October 2007 it topped at 70% bullish.

The BARRON's Confidence Index slid a couple of fractions to 74.00 from 74.2 the prior week, one-year ago it was 68.7

The Confidence index (High-grade index divided by intermediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

Friday's key indicators and metrics

Cycle highs or lows are in red

·McClellan Oscillator in Neutral at plus 91

·3-month $ LIBOR was 2.3985%.Lows were in November 2013 at 0.23660%

·CBOE Put / Call Volume Ratio – 0.9

·VIX – 13.76 – on 12/26/2013 it ticked 11.69 near 5-year lows of 11.05 on 3/4/13

·Natural Gas (Globex) – 4.304 a week ago Tuesday it ticked 3-year highs at 4.530

·Swiss Franc – 1.1060- The prior Friday it ticked, two year highs at 1.1373

·US Dollar Index – 80.96 – 18-month low 'support' lies just below 79.00

·Euro – 1.3598 the prior Friday it ticked two year highs at1.380

·Japanese Yen – 0.9558 – on Thursday it posted new 5-year lows at 0.9475

·Canadian Dollar – 0.9402 – just off last week's post of 3½ year lows

·Aussie Dollar –0.8933

·Crude oil (NYMEX) 95.44 – Support lows are at 92.00

·Brent crude 107.80

·Copper – 3.3815 – a week ago Wednesday it ticked three-year highs of 3.44

·Gold (COMEX) – 1225.2 – On Wednesday it ticked new 'recent' lows at 1181 and looks to test the lows of late May and if that support gives way 1100 looks doable

·The Treasury 5-year yield – 1.69%

·The Treasury 10-year yield – 2.9950 - cycle highs were the prior week at 3.01%

·The 30-year Treasury – 3.92% - the cycle highs of 3.93% were put in the prior week, and also ticked on August 22nd 2013.

·Silver (COMEX) – 20.128

·Platinum 1414.2

·Palladium 731.20

·Lumber (CME) – 360.70

Two vie in runoff for Finra small firm advisory board

Finra should design compliance programs that take into account the size and resources of the broker-dealers it oversees, according to one of two candidates for the regulator's Small Firm Advisory Board.

“Regulation should not be one-size fits all,” said Stephen Hart, chief compliance officer at Robotti & Company.

“I would encourage a closer look at firm sizes and [tailor] regulation that is targeted at them,” he said. “It's paramount to protect our clients' interests through appropriate regulation.”

Mr. Hart would have a platform for promoting his views, if he wins a runoff election for the New York Region seat on the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. advisory board. He is running against Myles Edwards, chief compliance officer and general counsel at Constellation Wealth Advisors.

The nearly 1,000 eligible small-firm broker-dealers in the area, which includes New York City and nearby Nassau and Suffolk counties, must cast their ballots by phone or electronically by Monday. A small firm is defined as one that has 150 or fewer registered representatives.

The original four-candidate race ended in a dead heat between Mr. Hart and Mr. Edwards. The winner will serve a three-year term beginning next month.

“It's pretty interesting,” said Mr. Hart, 34, who was a chief administrative officer and vice president at BlackRock Inc. before joining Robotti. “What are the chances of it being an exact tie?”

Mr. Edwards is the incumbent on the advisory board.

In a statement on Finra's website, he said he would provide a “practical and responsible approach to serving small firms.”

“Self-regulation and business practicability can be compatible, and I would seek to assist in the process whereby rules are formulated collaboratively, thus strengthening the relationship between the member firm, the district and Finra itself,” Mr. Edwards, who didn't respond to an interview request, said in the statement.